A group of thunderstorms is gathering in the southern Caribbean, north of the Colombian coast. The National Hurricane Center labeled it Invest 97L. It is currently part of a large low pressure system, but is expected to consolidate into an organized tropical depression and possibly Tropical Storm Rafael over the next few days.

By tomorrow, the system should be close to Jamaica. The consensus of the various computer forecasts is that it will then be a tropical depression. This could become Rafael by the end of the day.

Flow around the strong high pressure off the southeast coast is expected to push the system northwestward, possibly over the western tip of Cuba. According to the current schedule, the depression or probably Rafael will move towards the Gulf on Wednesday.

The air will be trapped between the low pressure of the Caribbean system and the high pressure of the Atlantic. The result will be gusty winds and dangerous ocean conditions along Florida’s east coast, particularly the southern half of the Florida peninsula, at least Monday through Wednesday. Strong winds could also affect the Florida Keys and southwest Florida on Wednesday, depending on Rafael’s likely path.

Torrential rain is possible on the Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico. Rich tropical moisture is expected to spread south to north across the Florida peninsula starting Tuesday. Rafael’s moisture is likely to cover much of the state through Thursday, at least.

There is disagreement among computer forecast models about how strong Rafael is likely to be as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast ranges from a low-intensity tropical storm to a Category 1 hurricane. Keep in mind that the system isn’t even developed yet, so we shouldn’t focus on just one forecast. The atmospheric environment, however, appears reasonably conducive to development. So at least a healthy tropical storm is a reasonable possibility.

Once Rafael likely reaches the Gulf, the steering currents may weaken, meaning the system will move more slowly. Forecasts for slow systems are always very uncertain, and this one is not even formed yet.

Reasonable leads for the end of the week run west toward Mexico or Texas to north toward the Florida Panhandle. But no matter where it goes, the best current evidence is that it will weaken significantly before reaching the coast.

(National Hurricane Center)

Hostile winds aloft are blowing across the northern Gulf and Southeast, and unless long-range computer forecasts are completely wrong, they will continue. All long-term projections weaken the system significantly before it reaches the Gulf Coast.

LINK: Get updates on Rafael and more at foxweather.com.