But voters might punish incumbents rather than vote for Republicans, said Rodrigo Dominguez-Villegas, research director at UCLA’s Latino Policy & Politics Institute.

“These high prices remind you every day because you buy something every day,” he said. “High inflation was a global phenomenon. This was not unique to the United States. But who was in power when this happened? It was Biden and Harris.

Julián Castro, CEO of the Latino Community Foundation, said Trump’s victory resembles the victories of Ronald Reagan in 1980 and George W. Bush in 2000: all three campaigned against a Democratic administration that “faced headwinds,” he said.

“In 1980, the economy was similar to that of 2024, at least in people’s minds,” Castro said. “In 2000, after eight years of Democratic governance, there was a pent-up demand for change. »

But even though they are frustrated with the economy under the Biden administration, most Latinos who spoke to CalMatters said that doesn’t mean they will continue to vote Republican.

“I’m just going to see how it goes over the (next) four years,” Izaguirre said.

‘It’s not me’

Trump has vowed to carry out the largest deportation in American history, targeting immigrants in the country illegallywith or without a criminal record.

But Izaguirre, along with other Latino Trump supporters who spoke to CalMatters, said they don’t want undocumented immigrants who have worked in the country for years to be deported. The majority of them favored granting legal status to these immigrants – a policy supported by Democrats.

Trump’s victory terrified some migrants at the border and undocumented immigrants in California.

“I feel worried because I don’t know what the future will be for us, people who are undocumented, and we work here,” an undocumented immigrant in Delano told CalMatters in Spanish. CalMatters is not naming him due to concern for his safety.

But others said Trump’s mass deportation plan wouldn’t affect them.

“He said he was going to deport people with bad records. It’s not me. I don’t have a bad record,” said a Stanislaus County farm worker who spoke to CalMatters on condition of anonymity and said she arrived in the country by paying a “coyote” — a term designating smugglers – 20 years ago.

Huesgew Mendoza compared Trump’s mass deportation to shouting fire in a theater. “It seems too scary, too serious,” she said.

And Aaron Barajas, 46, who voted for Trump this year in his first presidential election, denounced policies that would “separate people from their families.” arguing that those already established in the United States should be allowed to obtain legal documents. But he drew a distinction between those who already live here and those who want to come here, arguing that Trump simply wants to “bring people to our country, but do it the right way.”

It appears that Trump’s rhetoric on immigration did not deter Latinos from voting for him, contrary to the assumption made by Democrats after the passage of Proposition 187, Suro said.

“The assumption was that in the face of threats to the immigrant population, xenophobic rhetoric and harsh exclusionary measures toward immigrants … you would alienate Latinos,” he said. “Trump clearly refuted that.”

That’s partly because Trump and his allies “scapegoated” migrants “physically at the border” for mass expulsions, Castro said. “They separated the newcomers from those who have been here a long time, and that’s why I think you hear people expressing confidence that he’s not thinking about them.”

Another factor could be the rapidly changing demographics of Latinos in California, as more and more Young Latinos born in the United States can votesay the experts.

“Overall, fewer Latinos are as close to the immigration experience as they used to be,” said Mindy Romero, founder and director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy. “How close you are to the immigrant experience can directly affect how you view domestic policy (immigration efforts) versus the border (immigration). »

Anti-immigration sentiment might even appeal to some Latino voters who are “fueled by a deep desire to assimilate or be seen as belonging to a broader American culture and to differentiate themselves from those seen as outsiders,” Dominguez said. Villegas at UCLA.

A referendum on the Democrats?

While it’s too early to draw definitive conclusions from the election, Democrats take note that they need to do a better job of reaching Latino voters, something both major parties have done poorly in California, consultants say policies.

California Democrats “are clearly at risk of losing Latino support in the long term” due to “poor branding” that has lasted more than a decade, Madrid said.

But, he added, “there is very little evidence to suggest that Latinos are becoming more conservative.” There is a lot of evidence to suggest that they are becoming more populist.”

Michael Gomez Daly, senior strategist for the progressive group California Donor Table, said he didn’t know how best to counter the backlash Democrats were facing from voters hurt by inflation, noting that voters might memory of Trump with “rose-colored glasses”.

However, he said, Trump has proven “inspiring” among Latino voters, even with his “problematic” rhetoric. Living in the 41st Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Ken Calvert narrowly beat Democrat Will Rollins, Gomez Daly said she sees conservative ads on YouTube targeting young men all the time.

“I think Democrats need to recognize the economic situation that much of inland California is facing and talk about these issues and give people hope,” he said. “I think that was missing.”

CalMatters Data Journalist Jeremy Kimelman contributed to this story.