By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER

WASHINGTON (AP) — No one knows how Tuesday’s presidential election will turn out, but the Federal Reserve’s decision two days later is much easier to predict: with inflation continue to coolthe Fed is preparing to cut interest rates for a period second time This year.

The presidential race could still be up in the air when the Fed wraps up its two-day meeting Thursday afternoon, but that uncertainty would have no effect on its decision to further cut its benchmark rate. The Fed’s future actions, however, will become more uncertain once a new president and Congress take office in January, particularly if Donald Trump wins the White House again.

Trump’s proposals to impose high tariffs on all imports and launch mass expulsions of illegal immigrants, as well as his threat to encroach on the Fed’s normally independent rate decisions could cause a sharp rise in inflation, economists said. Higher inflation would, in turn, force the Fed to slow or stop its rate cuts.

On Thursday, Fed policymakers, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, are on track to cut their benchmark rate by a quarter point, to around 4.6%, after implementing a half-point cut. point in September. Economists expect another quarter-point rate cut in December and possibly more similar measures next year. Over time, rate cuts tend to lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

The Fed cuts rates for a different reason than it usually does: It often cuts rates to stimulate a sluggish economy and weak job market by encouraging more borrowing and spending. But the the economy is growing rapidlyand the unemployment rate is a low 4.1%the government reported Friday, even with hurricanes and a strike at Boeing sharply depressed net employment growth last month.

Instead, the central bank is lowering rates as part of what Powell called “a recalibration” to a lower inflation environment. When inflation hit a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022, the Fed made 11 rate hikes, ultimately raising its policy rate to around 5.3%, also the highest in four decades.

But in September, year-on-year inflation fell to 2.4%barely above the Fed’s 2% target and on par with its 2018 level. With inflation falling so far, Powell and other Fed officials have said they believe High borrowing rates were no longer necessary. High borrowing rates generally limit growth, especially in interest-rate-sensitive industries such as real estate and auto sales.