What you need to know: China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has developed a powerful fleet of aircraft carriers, which could increase the number to six by the 2030s. But unlike the United States, Chinese carriers are not not designed to project power at a distance; instead, they serve in an anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) “bubble” in the first island chain.

-This A2/AD shield, reinforced by advanced missile systems, limits U.S. naval access while granting China the freedom to operate within its perceived sphere of influence. Chinese aircraft carriers thus support local dominance under this protective umbrella rather than anchoring the offensive power of the fleet.

-Chinese strategy prioritizes regional defense and control over direct global reach.

Why China’s growing fleet of aircraft carriers is not what you think

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has built a fleet of increasingly sophisticated aircraft carriers. What started out as the butt of all the naval community’s jokes: the Russian-built Chinese aircraft carrier called the Liaoning—helped the PLAN become a robust (although untested and still limited) carrier force.

With three aircraft carriers in total, and a fourth on the way, China produces its carriers like sausages (thanks to the mass production capabilities that Wall Street ceded to China during the deindustrialization madness that hit). America in the middle of the last century). ). The fourth carrier in China’s growing fleet is rumor be nuclear (the other three are non-nuclear).

Chinese naval planners desire have five or six aircraft carriers in its fleet by the 2030s, according to Wang Yunfei, a retired PLAN officer familiar with Beijing’s aircraft carrier plans.

This, however, begs the question of how many carriers does China actually need?

And this brings us to the underlying problem facing most great powers today, which is that the advent of sophisticated anti-zone/access denial (A2/AD) systems has complicated the ability of navies around the world to project power beyond their shores.

At least that’s the case for the US Navy.

China plans to use aircraft carriers in the bubble

So, if A2/AD has seriously delayed the ability of surface fleets to move their assets within range of distant targets – and the Chinese military has led the way in this revolution – why is Beijing dumping so much money and resources to develop their own aircraft carrier capability?

That’s because, despite its abysmal human rights record and authoritarian rule, China is run by real military strategists, not politicians.

China has a multi-step strategy to dominate the Indo-Pacific, starting with the first island chain. There are three island chainseach one radiating from the last. The first chain of islands extends from Japan to the Philippines via Taiwan. The second island chain consists of tiny South Pacific islands stretching from the Japanese island of Okinawa to U.S.-controlled Guam. The third and final chain includes the Aleutian Islands of Alaska and extends down to the Hawaiian Islands. \

For China to dominate the Indo-Pacific, it must ultimately control all three channels. However, their main priority now is to dominate the First Island Chain. This is where China sprawling constellation A2/AD for example, throughout the South China Sea, comes into play. From these forward deployed positions, Chinese A2/AD systems can repel most attempts by U.S. Navy surface warships to engage scope of Chinese forces likely to be engaged in an invasion, or even a blockade, of Taiwan or in any other hostile action against another country. Allied with the United States, like the Philippines.

Without the ability to reliably project power against Chinese forces in the first island chain, Beijing’s forces suddenly have a strategic free hand in what they view as their sphere of influence.

Essentially, A2/AD systems create an almost impenetrable space “bubble” to protect Chinese military forces from American military retaliation. Beneath the protective A2/AD bubble is where Chinese carriers will operate – likely out of range of U.S. offensive systems. With the US Navy’s biggest spotlights of power, the aircraft carriers, kept at bay, China’s aircraft carriers will have free rein to operate and intimidate.

This is, of course, the goal of China’s robust arsenal of A2/AD systems.

Aircraft carriers are not the centerpiece of Chinese power projection

Unlike the US NavyChinese aircraft carriers are not the center of gravity of their fleet. These systems are accessories. The linchpin of China’s offensive maritime strategy curiously lies in its A2/AD defensive systems.

These systems are specifically designed to retain the majority of US naval power, thereby giving other Chinese naval assets, such as their less sophisticated aircraft carriers, the opportunity to strengthen their national interest in the First Island Chain and maintain the American power on the horizon. .

Author Experience and Expertise: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weicherta national security project of national interest analystis a former congressman and geopolitical analyst who contributes to The Washington Times, Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock.

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