Diplomat author Mercy Kuo regularly engages subject matter experts, policy practitioners, and strategic thinkers from around the world for their diverse perspectives on U.S. Asia policy. This conversation with Dr. Elizabeth Freund Larus – Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and Indo-Pacific Security Initiative and Distinguished Professor of Political Science and former Chair of the Department of Political Science and Business International University of Mary Washington – is the 439th in “The Trans-Pacific View Insight” series.

Examine U.S. policy toward Taiwan under a Harris administration or a second-term Trump administration.

Regardless of which candidate wins the White House, Harris and Trump will continue long-standing U.S. policy toward Taiwan. Specifically, they will adhere to the US One China policy, strategic ambiguity and the Taiwan Relations Act. Every U.S. president has adhered to these policies since 1979, even if they stumbled at first.

For example, as a presidential candidate, Ronald Reagan indicated that he might resume U.S. diplomatic relations with Taiwan; President-elect Trump broke protocol by receiving a congratulatory phone call from the Taiwanese president. In both cases, the White House reversed course and confirmed that there was no change in the US One China policy. I expect Trump or Harris to do the same.

How might Beijing’s approach to cross-Strait relations change under a new US administration?

No matter who wins the White House, Beijing will expect the United States to maintain its one-China vision. policy. Trump is more likely than Harris to increase defense spending to maintain the U.S.-led order in the Asia-Pacific region. Beijing will more aggressively investigate Taiwan’s vulnerabilities. Expect a Harris administration to strengthen its engagement with China. China will examine U.S. vulnerabilities in its relationship with Taiwan to see how far Harris’ engagement agenda will go.

Analyze the impact of escalating tensions in the South China Sea on the geopolitical dynamics of the Taiwan Strait.

Although located in Northeast Asia, Taiwan controls the island of Itu Aba in the southern part of the South China Sea. In recent years, China has built bases on neighboring islands, threatening the security of Itu Aba. Furthermore, China’s aggression against the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam in the South China Sea may have spillover effects on Taiwan. If Beijing manages to gain control of controversial maritime structures or even the EEZs of its maritime neighbors, it could then direct its military power toward Taiwan and force Taipei to accept concessions on Chinese terms.

Identify Taipei’s top three priorities in engaging a new U.S. administration.

The first priority is ensuring the United States’ commitment to Taiwan’s security. Specifically, on-time delivery of arms sales. The second priority is to help Taiwan expand its diplomatic space by gaining U.S. support for Taiwan’s inclusion in international organizations, even those that require statehood, such as the UN and its associated bodies. . The third priority is to strengthen trade relations. Taiwan is the seventh largest trading partner of the United States. The U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Commerce provides a framework to strengthen trade and investment between the United States and Taiwan. Negotiations to remove the double taxation penalty for businesses must move forward.

Assess how new U.S. leaders should handle the rising stakes in Taiwan-U.S. relations amid growing strategic competition between China and the United States.

The United States’ commitment to China has not made its leaders less likely to use force to unify Taiwan with China, if necessary. The next U.S. president must strengthen the U.S. position of supporting a peaceful determination of Taiwan’s status by people on both sides of the Strait. Washington must back its words forcefully by increasing its naval forces, maritime assets and bases in the region. Beijing will not be deterred by the decline of American power in the Asia-Pacific region.