The fourth seeding of the 2024 College Football Playoff is almost here and things are bound to change after seven ranked teams lost last weekend. Before the CFP committee reveals the next rankings, I predict where the top 25 teams will land.

The fourth of the six revelations of the CFP top 25 will take place on Tuesday, November 26 (here is the complete program). Ahead of the announcement, here’s a prediction for how the committee might rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine only. I look at head-to-head results, strength of schedule, games against ranked teams and more to help rank teams as I believe the CFP committee will. You can read the official CFP committee protocols here.

2024 College Football Playoff Rankings Predictions: Fourth Top 25 Projections

These forecasts are from Sunday, November 23.

1. Oregon (11-0) AG: 1 — Oregon remains on top after a bye.
2. Ohio State (10-1) LW: 2 — Ohio State strengthened its grip on second place after another top-five victory.
3. Texas (10-1) LW: 3 — Texas beat Kentucky and will remain the top-ranked team in the SEC.
4. Penn State (10-1) LW: 4 — Penn State escaped Minnesota with a victory. Even though it wasn’t pretty, the Nittany Lions will stay at #4.
5. Notre Dame (10-1) LW: 6 — Notre Dame could claim to move into the top four after a dominant win over Army, but I think the committee will keep the Fighting Irish fifth after comparing ranked losses.
6. Miami (Florida) (10-1) LW: 8 — Miami beat Wake Forest and will overtake the teams that lost last week.
7. Georgia (9-2) LW: 10 — Georgia beat UMass and will advance this week.
8. Tennessee (9-2) AG: 11 — Tennessee is back in the playoff picture after a shutout of UTEP.
9. Indiana (10-1) LW: 5 — Indiana falls to 9th place after its first defeat. That’s behind a few two-loss teams with better wins, but with just one loss the Hoosiers remain in the top 10.
10. Boise State (10-1) LW: 12 — Boise State beat Wyoming by four points. The close win keeps it behind Indiana, even though its UNLV win is better than any Hoosiers win.
11. SMU (10-1) LW: 13 — SMU is finally in the playoff bracket now that two other SEC teams have three losses.
12. Alabama (8-3) LW: 7 — Alabama will be the highest-ranked three-loss team this week thanks to its previous win over South Carolina. The Tide aren’t completely out of the playoffs, but they won’t be in the bracket this week.
13. Ole Miss (8-3) LW: 9 — Ole Miss has a floor – for this week – thanks to a head-to-head victory over South Carolina.
14. Clemson (9-2) AG: 17 — Clemson progresses thanks to the defeats of other teams. However, the Tigers were eliminated by a Georgia team beaten by Alabama and Ole Miss, so they remain behind the Tide and Rebels.
15. South Carolina (8-3) LW: 18 — A win against Wofford keeps South Carolina in the playoff bubble.
16. Arizona State (9-2) LW: 21 — Arizona State might be higher after knocking off the No. 14 team in the country, but the Sun Devils were three spots behind South Carolina in the previous rankings. The committee thought South Carolina was better last week and I don’t think a win over a fading BYU team changes that.
17. Tulane (9-2) LW: 20 — Tulane had a bye last week and is expected to move into the teens this week.
18. Iowa State (9-2) LW: 22 — Iowa State outlasted Utah to keep its Big 12 hopes alive.
19. Texas A&M (8-3) LW: 15 — Texas A&M falls, but remains above a Missouri team it has dominated in head-to-head meetings.
20. Missouri (8-3) LW: 23 — Missouri should move into the top 20 this week after a win over Mississippi State.
21. BYU (9-2) LW: 14 — Consecutive losses will propel BYU to 20th. The Cougars fell eight spots last week, so it’s clear the committee didn’t think highly of them.
22. UNLV (9-2) LW: 24 — UNLV advances after win over San Jose State
23. Illinois (8-3) AG: 25 — Illinois remains ranked after his improbable victory against Rutgers.
24. Colorado (8-3) AG: 16 — Colorado will fall this week, but I think a team in contention for the Big 12 title will still be ranked.
25. Syracuse (8-3) LW: NR — Syracuse enters the standings as a three-loss team in the ACC. The Orange have a win over UNLV on their resume.

PCP: College Football Playoff Rankings Release Schedule

What support might look like

First teams out: No. 12 Alabama, No. 13 Ole Miss, No. 14 Clemson, No. 15 South Carolina

Notable College Football Playoff Rankings Questions

Where does Indiana land?

There has been a lot of talk about where Indiana would land if it lost to Ohio State since the initial College Football Playoff rankings were released. Of course, that was before the Alabama and Ole Miss losses. Indiana will likely remain in the projected playoff field, but will an Indiana with one loss fall behind SEC teams with two losses?

RECAP FROM LAST WEEK: Florida topples No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 2 Ohio State, ends No. 5 Indiana’s unbeaten streak and more

Do teams with three losses have a real chance of making the playoffs?

Alabama and Ole Miss now have three losses. How far will they go? Both schools had a notable victory against Georgia, which could still carry weight in the committee’s eyes.

Could the Big 12 miss the playoffs?

Arizona State is the top-ranked team in the Big 12. However, the conference might not have a team ranked in the top 15 this week. With neither of the Big 12’s ranked teams facing each other in Week 14, the conference is a few upsets away from not having the fifth-highest ranked conference champion.