Yiwu, China, is home to the world’s largest wholesale market, where business is booming as traders search for cheap goods to stock their shelves. But political analysts are also closely watching the phenomenon they call the “Yiwu Index.” According to the notion, a American presidential election Candidates’ chances of winning the upcoming elections are improving with the success of their sales of replica items in Yiwu.

Interestingly, the “Yiwu Index” predicts that of Donald Trump victory in 2016 more accurately than pollsters who were certain Hillary Clinton would win the election.

Beijing is likely applying this theory while observing the 2024 elections, which are scheduled to take place on November 5, the Daily Mail reported.

What is the Yiwu Index?

Political campaigns have always relied heavily on commodities. While candidates often use their official clothing to raise funds, foreign retailers have flooded the market with copies of candidates’ merchandise, taking advantage of the growing divisions in American politics.

Yiwu is known for offering early warnings about upcoming presidential elections based on the type of products it sells. However, the market is not perfect and it is wrong to rely on the index to try to predict the outcome.

First, the market relies primarily on wholesale and almost never sells products directly to customers.

Retailers can typically place bulk orders for specific products during this shopping period in anticipation of increased demand.

The likelihood that Trump supporters will display, wear, and purchase products that reflect their political affiliations is much higher than that of the vice president’s supporters. Kamala Harris or any other candidate.

Although Asset goods made in China sold more than goods bearing Joe Biden’s name in 2020, the latter nevertheless declared victory.

Yiwu predictions for the 2024 US elections

Ahead of the 2024 US elections, the Yiwu market saw a surge in demand for camouflage Harris-Walz campaign caps, which is a good sign for Democrats.

According to The Telegraph, the first batch was completely sold out within 30 minutes of going on sale.

However, Zoe Liu Zongyuan of the Council on Foreign Relations, a US-based research institute, warned the outlet that the ranking may not be accurate.

Make a comparison between someone with Asset or Harris’ neighbor Zongyuan said Trump voters are more likely to display their MAGA content.

“Democrats, people who vote independently, or undecideds are less likely to spend money on these things. So I would say that because the behavior of voters has changed, the way they show their enthusiasm has changed, the Yiwu index may no longer be an accurate indicator.

According to Yiwu’s theory, Trump’s higher sales than his competitors could be a sign of early voter turnout.

“When everyone was saying the Democrats, Hilary Clinton, were going to win (in 2016), the index suggested otherwise,” Zongyuan said, noting that it is Americans, diplomats and rally attendees who are buying these products , not the Chinese.