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    • How will Ohio State Georgia be ranked?
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    How will Ohio State Georgia be ranked?

    Umito Posted on

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    • The CFP committee got the green light Saturday to load the playoffs with Big Ten and SEC teams.
    • If BYU wins the Big 12 and Miami wins the ACC, those conferences could end up with one bid each.
    • Carson Beck’s play remains a concern for Georgia.

    The Big Ten and SEC have become Saturday’s big winners.

    Losses by Clemson And Pittsburgh in the ACC and Iowa State And Kansas State in the Big 12 increased the chances of those two leagues being reduced to one playoff bid each and widened the path for the “Super Two” conferences to claim four playoff bids each.

    The College Football Playoff committee will open a window into its thinking when the first playoff rankings are released Tuesday night.

    The functioning of the committee remains shrouded in mystery. Here’s how the committee describes its ranking process on the CFP website: The selection committee chooses the 12 teams for the playoffs based on strength of schedule, head-to-head results against common opponents, championships won and other factors.

    Well, that one sentence clears things up, doesn’t it?

    The committee’s lack of transparency is sure to intensify the controversy over its playoff picks. The public is not even aware of the strength of the schedule metrics that SportSource Analytics provides to the committee.

    Basically, the committee can make up whatever justifications they want to justify their playoff pitch.

    “Records matter,” Rich Clark, executive director of the CFP, said Wednesday, “but we’re not trying to pick the most deserving teams. We’re trying to pick the best teams. This committee has to look at the entire body ( of a team).

    Here is my prediction on what the top 12 rankings could look like on Tuesday night:

    1. Oregon (9-0): This is the easy part. The Ducks are #1. The longer the season goes on, the more dominant Oregon looks.

    2. Ohio State (7-1): The Buckeyes timed their road win at Penn State perfectly, three days before the first seeding. This performance should stick in the minds of committee members as they search for a No. 2 team.

    3. Georgia (7-1): The Bulldogs’ stats are excellent, but their performance on the subjective vision test could be the difference between No. 2 and No. 3.

    4. Miami (9-0): The committee can’t ignore the Hurricanes’ record, but Miami’s vulnerable defense will justify its exclusion from the top three.

    5. State of Pennsylvania (7-1): The Nittany Lions won’t be punished too much for a one-score loss to OSU, and their strength of schedule provides some separation from Texas, Tennessee and Brigham Young.

    6. Texas (7-1): The Longhorns’ offensive and defensive balance helps them sight-wise, despite a mediocre schedule.

    7. Tennessee (7-1): The Vols’ reliable defense fuels Tennessee’s playoff chase. The committee still respects Alabama, so Tennessee’s win over the Tide will make the resume shine.

    8. Brigham Young (8-0): The Cougars have a nice win at Southern Methodist, but their schedule lags behind the teams one loss ahead of them. This ranking will show the committee that it plans to make the Big 12 a single-bid league.

    9. Notre Dame (7-1): The Irish’s soft schedule should keep them from being ranked much higher, but the committee can point to wins over Texas A&M and Louisville to justify that ranking.

    10. Indiana (9-0): The Hoosiers continue to destroy their opponents, but their weaker schedule leaves them vulnerable. Placing Indiana here would give the committee a chance to beat the Hoosiers if OSU beat them.

    11. Alabama (6-2): Find someone who likes you the same way the committee consistently likes Scenario A. Alabama’s strength of schedule positions it best among two-loss teams.

    12. Boise State (7-1): A close loss to Oregon counts as a quality line on the Broncos‘ RESUME. They’re positioned for the Group of Five playoffs, but they need to win the Mountain West to hang on.

    Here’s what caught my eye in this view from the “Topp Rope”:

    What’s wrong with Georgia’s Carson Beck?

    I didn’t expect quarterback Carson Beck to be a factor holding Georgia back, but Beck went from team strength to responsibility at breakneck speed.

    He threw three interceptions in Georgia’s sloppy 34-20 win over Florida, giving him 11 steals in his last five games. He repeatedly forced passes in coverage. On his second interception, he unnecessarily threw a pass into triple coverage on first down.

    Beck doesn’t look like the same quarterback without Brock Bowers serving as his security blanket.

    Are we sure Beck gives Georgia a better chance than backup Gunner Stockton? This wouldn’t be the first time Kirby Smart parked his top quarterback on the bench.

    It took several injuries to JT Daniels for Smart to elevate Stetson Bennett IV to the starting spot in 2021. Bennett went on to lead Georgia to back-to-back national championships, but what would have happened if Daniels hadn’t gotten injured ?

    Knowing Smart’s history — in 2018 he continued to roll with Jake Fromm against Justin Fields — he’ll likely stick with Beck. Without seeing more of Stockton, it’s hard to know if this is the right decision, but it’s also hard to imagine Georgia winning a national championship with Beck playing like he has lately.

    “I don’t think there’s anything wrong with him,” Smart said before the Florida game.

    And I think Smart is the only one who feels this way.

    Three and out

    1. Hugh Freeze’s record fell to 9-13 in two seasons at Auburn following the Tigers’ 17-7 loss to Vanderbilt, Auburn’s first-ever home loss to the Commodores. Bryan Harsin was 9-12 when Auburn fired him in year two.

    Freeze’s recruiting class, ranked No. 5 in the 247Sports Composite, is the only argument in favor of giving him a third season. That argument might be strong enough to hold off Freeze, but he would enter 2025 in a hot spot, much like Billy Napier did in Florida this year.

    2. Quarterback DJ Lagway’s injury gave Florida an excuse to take the lead in a 34-20 loss to Georgia, but let’s be honest, the Gators would have found a way to lose anyway. Finding ways to lose winnable games remains their specialty under Billy Napier. I will now list the reasons why Florida should bring Napier back for a fourth season: ….

    In fact, I don’t see any.

    3. My latest “Topp Rope” playoff projection: Georgia (SEC), Oregon (Big Ten), Miami (ACC), BYU (Big 12), Boise State (Group of Five), plus at-large selections Tennessee, Texas, LSU, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State, Notre Dame. Next up: SMU, Alabama, Iowa State, Texas A&M, Army.

    Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Send him an email to [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @btopppmeyer. THE “Topp Rope” is his football column published on the USA TODAY Network.k. Subscribe read his entire columns.

    Umito
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