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House Election Predictions Shift to Republican Party as Democrats Hold on to Their Last Hope
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House Election Predictions Shift to Republican Party as Democrats Hold on to Their Last Hope

After an election night collapse Whether in the presidential election or key Senate races, Democrats view the House as their last hope. As things stand, the Lower House is too close to decide, even if it leans toward Republican control. The battle for the House majority will likely take place in California, where counting all the votes could take days or longer.

In the HomeDemocrats performed well in new Yorkwhere they lost key seats in 2022, flipping the state’s 22nd District, where Democrat John Mannion defeated Rep. Brandon Williams, and the 19th District, where Democrat Josh Riley unseated Rep. Marc Molinaro.

Democrats also held strong in the 18th District, where Rep. Pat Ryan won re-election, and appear poised to flip the Fourth District, where Democrat Laura Gillen is poised to unseat Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, although the race is still contested there. not been called. Democrats similarly failed to flip Rep. Nick LaLota’s seat in New York’s 1st District on Long Island and Rep. Mike Lawler’s seat in the state’s 17th District in the Valley. the Hudson.

As of Wednesday morning, Republicans had won 198 seats in the House, while Democrats had won 180. The only thing clear about the results at this point is that it will be a slim majority, regardless of party who will win, and that the full results will not be visible until after all the current elections. California are called.

California hosted 10 competitive races in 2024, five of which were toss-ups – all led by Republican incumbents. Although the Associated Press has not yet called any of the five toss-up races, the GOP candidates had an edge in all five: Rep. John Duarte in the 13th, Rep. David Valadao in the 22nd, Rep. Mike Garcia in the 27th, Rep. Mike Garcia in the 27th, Rep. David Valadao in the 22nd, Rep. Mike Garcia in the 27th, Rep. John Duarte in the 13th, Rep. David Valadao in the 22nd, Rep. Mike Garcia in the 27th. Ken Calvert in the 41st and Rep. Michelle Steel in the 45th on Wednesday morning. A large portion of the votes have not yet been counted.

Republicans received a good sign Wednesday morning, however, when California’s Third District was called for incumbent Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley. The Third District was considered competitive, but was unlikely to flip unless Democrats were able to exceed statewide expectations. As of Wednesday morning, Republicans had received 58% of the vote in the district, with 60% reporting.

Liberty Vittert, head of data at Decision Desk headquarters, told Salon that the call shifted the House projections in favor of Republicans, who now have an 80 percent chance of winning the lower chamber in her assessment.

Outside of the House battlegrounds of New York and California, Republicans appear to have performed well in those two countries as well. from Pennsylvania most watched races in the Seventh and Eighth Districts. Republicans Ryan Mackenzie and Robert Bresnahan enjoy slight advantages over Reps. Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright in their races, with 99% responding in both races. GOP incumbent Rep. Scott Perry was also leading in the 10th District, although the race has not yet been called.

In Michigan, Democrats managed to hold on to the Eighth District, where Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet won, as well as the Third District, where Rep. Hillary Scholten won. Republicans were able to flip the Seventh District, where Republican Tom Barrett was victorious, and take the lead in the 10th District, where Rep. John James appears likely to hold on, even though the race has not yet been decided. triggered.

As of Wednesday morning, Republicans also appeared on track to win in Wisconsin’s two competitive districts, the First and Third, where Reps. Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden are poised to hold on to their seats. Democrats, meanwhile, appear to be holding their own in North Carolina’s only swing district, the First, where Rep. Don Davis leads the vote total with 99% responding.

As things stand, the House may be the only brake on the Republican agenda. Legislative action would be necessary for former President Donald Trump to implement some of his key policy proposals, such as mass deportations and tariffs. A House majority would also give Democrats leadership positions on key committees, giving them investigative powers.

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