In terms of climate and especially environmental policy, the return of Donald Trump to the White House is clearly bad news. But the outlook is uncertain, as Trump has sent mixed signals about the types of policy changes he might implement, and it remains to be seen what effect he may have on broader technology and market trends.

NEW YORK — Elections are supposed to clarify political uncertainties, and on the economic front, that’s exactly what Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris did. The three major U.S. stock indexes and U.S. Treasury yields sautéed the day after the election, reflecting expectations of strong economic growth and a sharp rise in debt and inflation.

When it comes to climate and (especially) environmental policy, another Trump presidency is clearly bad newsand it is exacerbated by extreme political uncertainty and decidedly mixed signals, particularly in cases where Trump may attempt to impede broader technology and market trends.

Consider electric vehicles (EVs). Presenting himself as a champion internal combustion engine, Trump says he will eliminate tailpipe emissions rules from “day one”. This will be well within its power and could provide some support to a declining industry. At the same time, Tesla shares jumped 15% on election news, with investors clearly betting that the company will benefit from the fact that its CEO, Elon Musk, spent more than 100 million dollars of his own money to help elect Trump.

All of this is happening at a time when electric vehicles are demonstrating their fundamental superiority over the technology that preceded them. EV convert 90% of their power in distance traveled, compared to only 20% for gasoline vehicles. Although the total efficiency gain depends on the share of electricity produced from renewable energy, even coal-fired power plants are more efficient than an internal combustion engine. In West Virginia, where about 90% of electricity comes from coal, an electric vehicle reduces carbon pollution by about 30%. The average efficiency gain in the United States is already around 50% and growing.

So, basic physics dictates that any attempt by Trump to obstruct the transition to electric vehicles is doomed to failure. That said, he can still make a a lot of damage along the way, particularly with regard to American competitiveness. U.S. automakers already face fierce competition from China and elsewhere, and no reversal in U.S. policy on electric vehicles or other clean technologies will dampen the rest of the world’s green industrial expansion .

Already, more than half of newly registered cars in China are Electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles – more than twice the global average. The United States is a stragglerand Trump’s victory virtually guarantees that it will remain so for some time to come. Taxing 10-20% customs duties on all importsand a 60% tariff on Chinese productswill not protect domestic manufacturers, as it claims. Trump already perceived a 25% tariff during his first presidency, and it did nothing to help American automakers prepare for the electric future; neither does the Biden administration 100% rates on Chinese electric vehicles.

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Trump’s efforts to halt the transition to a low-carbon economy may be even more futile when it comes to solar, wind and other low-carbon technologies. Here too, China dominates the world market. produce 97% of solar wafers, 85% of solar cells and 80% of solar modules. This is why the Biden administration tried, with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), to offshore part of the renewable energy supply chain by subsidizing domestic manufacturing. This resulted in projects like Light up the United Statesa joint venture with Chinese solar manufacturer LONGi in Pataskala, Ohio. The factory should assemble more than nine million solar panels per year, enough to power one million American homes.

The Trump administration may well want to maintain the IRA production tax credit, which subsidizes about 25 percent of Illuminate’s costs. Regardless, Trump’s approach will have implications primarily for 1,000 Ohioans now employed by the factory. The effect on the global solar panel market will be negligible; LONGi will simply find ways to manufacture the panels more cheaply elsewhere if necessary.

Of course, Trump can and will also obstruct the deployment of renewable energy domestically. He has said that he will put an end to offshore wind leases; actions of turbine producers Ørsted and Vestas lost almost as much information on election news as Tesla gained. The Trump administration will also make it harder to connect new renewable energy to the grid and try to extend the life of aging fossil fuel infrastructure, while handing money to special interests. But such tactics would only delay the inevitable.

During his first administration, Trump attempted to revive the domestic coal sector. He failed. The coal had been on the way to the exit long before he came to power, and the industry’s decline has only accelerated since then. This change has been led by states like Texas, which recently exceeds California in terms of total solar installed on a commercial scale.

Yes, Trump can and will cause a lot of damage, including to public health by rolling back environmental rules and guarantees. During his previous term, he backed down more than 125 such rules, most of which were reinstated under Biden. This time, he will be more ruthless and more effective in ensuring that his turnovers last. In 2019, a an estimated 22,000 additional deaths in the United States were attributable to higher levels of local air pollution; such numbers will become our new norm.

But Biden repaired the damage done by Trump on the climate front, then went further. The outgoing administration’s climate policies were even more ambitious than what US Senator Bernie Sanders proposed in his 2016 presidential platform. Biden’s strategy, rooted in the IRA, reignited the race for green technology in the United States . Trump can and will handicap domestic industries in their fight for positions in this global competition, but he cannot stop it.