• Satellite imagery of a Russian naval base in September revealed strange movements at the facility.

• On several occasions, Russia has partially or completely dispersed its warships in Novorossiysk.

• This strange behavior follows Ukraine’s devastating attacks on the Black Sea Fleet.

Satellite images of a key Russian naval base along the Black Sea have revealed strange behavior, including dozens of military ships scattering out of the facility, only to return a short time later.

The footage, collected by BlackSky in September and obtained by Business Insider, shows Russia partially or completely dispersing its military ships from the port of Novorossiysk for brief periods on three occasions that month.

This puzzling behavior has not yet been attributed to anything in particular, but it comes against the backdrop of a Ukrainian crisis. long-range strike campaign against the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The Black Sea Fleet lasted a long time headquartered in Sevastopolin the southwest corner of the occupied Crimean peninsula. But a series of high-profile Ukrainian missile and naval drone attacks on the port forced Russia to withdraw its warships to bases in Feodosia, on the other side of Crimea, and Novorossiysk, in western Russia.

The attacks have not stopped and Ukraine targets Novorossiysk with drones several times this year.

More than 50 ships – a mix of surface warships, submarines, supply ships and tugboats – are typically stationed in Novorossiysk, according to BlackSky images and analysis. The company provides real-time spatial intelligence and has collected hundreds of port images since June 2023.

But in September, BlackSky first detected unusual behavior: The military ships briefly left Novorossiysk before returning. She observed three distinct cases revealing partial and complete dispersal of ships from the port.

Footage from September 2 shows the Black Sea Fleet actively abandoning the port of Novorossiysk, with more than two dozen ships observed leaving the port for port.

According to BlackSky imagery and analysis, similar activity was detected the following week, on September 11, with only seven ships remaining in port.

And then a few days later, on September 14, for the first time, no military ships were in Novorossiysk. However, some have been seen hiding in the nearby commercial port.

An intelligence analyst familiar with the images and data, who spoke on condition of anonymity, described the Russian behavior as “a new tactic,” although it is unclear for what purpose.

“The most fascinating thing is that when the ships withdrew, no attacks followed,” the analyst told BI, adding that such activity had never been observed before in Novorossiysk.

“It’s a very new phenomenon: military ships are completely evacuating the port. They simply have nowhere to go.”

The analyst said the ships don’t go very far when they disperse, noting that “they mostly sit and loiter outside the port where they regroup and are always susceptible to attack.” .

It is unclear why Russia moved its ships in this manner, as the movement of the ships does not appear to correspond to a publicized attack on Novorossiysk.

There were naval drone activity reported locally near the port in early September; however, Ukraine did not announce its involvement, as it usually does after an attack on the Black Sea Fleet.

Russia held large-scale naval exercises between September 10 and 16, but no ships were involved in the Black Sea. Western intelligence said it was “very likely” due to Ukrainian attacks during the first half of the year.

Some analysts have speculated that the dispersion This may be Russia’s reaction reports at the time this meant that the United States and the United Kingdom were close to dropping restrictions on Ukraine’s use of their long-range missiles. kyiv has long been banned to use these powerful weapons to strike military targets in Russia.

Although these restrictions are still in place, Ukraine demonstrated throughout the war that it had a long reach with its own domestic production. cruise missiles, long-range attack drones, and naval drones.

Brady Africk, an open source intelligence analyst and associate at the American Enterprise Institute think tank, told BI that Ukraine has gradually developed its long-range strike capabilities, which can threaten a growing number of Russian military assets.

“As for Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, we have seen Ukraine repeatedly successfully target Russian ships in those ports,” said Africk, who works with satellite imagery to track Black Sea activity.

“This prompted Russia not only to add layers of defense to port entrances, but also to further disperse its assets within these sites,” he added.

Satellite imagery captured Russia’s considerable efforts to protect its ports from Ukrainian attacks. For example, in Novorossiysk, Moscow has installed barges and floating booms to strengthen protection.

Russia has increased combat air patrols in other areas of the Black Sea and installed more weapons on its warships, a general in Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said. previously told BIbut the attacks continue to spread.

Africk said that, unlike the important Russian dispersal from Sevastopolwhich was a significant reaction to Ukraine’s growing ability to strike the Black Sea Fleet at longer distances, the situation in Novorossiysk became more fragmented.

In other words, naval assets have been moved to less consistent bases and under certain conditions, such as when Moscow is worried about a possible attack.

The Ukrainian campaign in the Black Sea was a define success in war. A senior U.S. defense official said last month that kyiv had sunk, destroyed or damaged at least 32 medium and large Russian warships and, in doing so, pushed Moscow’s naval forces back from Crimea.

Africk said that “Ukraine has created a situation in which Russian naval forces have fewer and fewer places to hide, especially as they get closer to kyiv-controlled territory.”

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