ROCHESTER, NY — What factors will determine who wins the 2024 presidential election, according to experts?

It is impossible to predict whether Vice President Harris or former President Trump will emerge victorious. But Dr. Sebastian Lazardeux, associate professor of political science at Saint John Fisher University, gives his take on the outcome of the race.

“We have seven swing states: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and the blue line states Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. These elements will obviously be important. These are the states that will determine the elections,” Lazardeux said.

“Pennsylvania is a must-win state for (former) President Trump. It’s also a must-win state for Vice President Harris, although to a lesser extent. But Pennsylvania is extremely important,” Lazardeux said.

He also explained that there are three key demographic groups that could mobilize elections: BIPOC voters, middle- and upper-class women, and young men.

“Bringing African American women voters to the polls is a plus for Vice President Harris,” said Dr. Lazardeux. “Bringing young, poorly educated men to the polls is a plus for President Trump. »

The big question that remains, will they be present at the polls?

“The positive side of polarized politics lies in the effect on participation and on the interest of citizens to actually express their opinion,” Lazardeux said.

Polling stations open at 6 a.m. on election day and close at 9 p.m. If you have to work and don’t have enough time outside of work to vote, in New York State your employer is required to give you at least two hours to vote without losing salary.

Dr. Lazardeux will join News10NBC in studio the morning after the election for further analysis. If you have a question you’d like answered, email [email protected].

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