Former president Donald Trump is expected to be the next president of the United States, according to an ABC News projection released at 5:31 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, November 6. As of 6 a.m. Eastern, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were projected for Trump and the former and future president is also leading in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada. At this point, the most likely end result appears to be a Trump victory by 312 votes to 226. Additionally, while it will take some time to count all the ballots, Trump also appears likely to win the popular vote national for the election of the president.

Over the next few months, ABC News and 538 will be doing a lot of analysis to determine exactly how Trump won. After all, he may be only the second Republican presidential candidate since 1992 to win the national popular vote. This warrants not only some soul-searching on the part of Democrats, but also a lot of quality analysis. And the fact that Trump swept the swing states — while not surprising — also represents a new high point for his electoral success.

But for now, here are three quick possible explanations for Trump’s victory. This information relies primarily on exit poll results, which for various reasons are imperfect but remain for now the best available source of data on why and how different types of people voted. (We reserve the right to review these conclusions when more data becomes available.)

Inflation

For all the hubbub over various issues, statements, rallies, and speeches during this election, the economy is unique in providing the most obvious gravitational pull toward Trump. Voters rank the cost of living in the United States as one of their top concerns – and it is undoubtedly one of the most pressing, salient, and visible issues of their lives. It’s not a stretch to imagine that they would punish the ruling party for this, even if they viewed Trump unfavorably; in fact, that’s what voters around the world have done over the past three years.

According to the poll result, 35 percent of voters nationwide considered “the state of democracy” as the most important factor in their vote. Eighty-one percent of those people voted for Harris and only 17 percent for Trump. But the economy was the second most influential issue. Among these voters, Trump led 79 percent to 20 percent. In the end, abortion did not score as well as Democrats might have hoped; just 14 percent considered it their biggest concern.

It’s possible that inflation has helped widen the gap between high-income and low-income voters. According to exit poll results, Democrats increased their vote share by 9 points among voters living in households earning more than $100,000 a year. Among lower-earning households, which make up about 60 percent of voters, Republicans gained a 12-point margin.

Racial polarization

Early exit poll estimates also suggest that Democratic support has declined among non-white voters and increased among white voters (particularly those with a college education). The exit poll indicates that Trump won white voters by 12 percentage points, or 55 percent to Harris’s 43 percent. Compared to 2020 poll results, this represents a 5-point improvement for Democrats.

Democrats fared best compared to 2020 among white, college-educated voters. They moved 7 points to the left, voting 54 percent to Harris’s 44 percent. Non-white and uneducated voters, meanwhile, were up 13 points in favor of Trump.

The Republican’s gains among non-whites were particularly strong among Hispanic and Latino voters. Democrats’ voting margin with the group fell 26 points, according to exit poll results, to just 53 percent from 45 percent. Trump’s vote share among Latinos appears to be the best since George W. Bush’s 44 percent in 2004. Latino men gained 33 points in Trump’s favor, one of his biggest swings.

Democratic participation was low

In addition to economic woes and deteriorating margins with their base, it appears Democrats also experienced low turnout. So far, approximately 137 million ballots have been counted for the 2024 presidential election. The final turnout is forecast to be around 152 million votes. This would be a decrease from the 158 million people who voted in 2020 and would equate to about 61% of eligible voters. This would be down from 66 percent in 2020.

It is also likely that the decline in turnout has disproportionately affected Democrats. Although we can’t know for sure until we can examine the records of who actually voted (states will release them in the coming months), the decline in turnout is currently greatest in the most Democratic counties in the Battlefield States. This is something that would particularly hurt Harris; If you’re a Democrat, low turnout in the suburbs is sure bad, but not as bad as missing the mark in Philadelphia or Milwaukee, where you’re counting on a large number of votes to carry you to victory.

Over the coming months, we’ll be able to look at even more data on why Trump won (again). The basic explanation is that this was always going to be a tough election for Harris to win. She neither managed to win over undecided voters nor move her base where it mattered most. Democrats will have to do a lot of soul-searching to find a way to recover from this.