close
close

Apre-salomemanzo

Breaking: Beyond Headlines!

The next day: Things to consider about Trump’s victory and the election results at Mass.
aecifo

The next day: Things to consider about Trump’s victory and the election results at Mass.

Marc Herz: This is the morning edition of GBH. Well, the election results are in: Donald Trump will return to the White House in January. And here in Massachusetts, there were five ballot questions voters voted on yesterday, including the vote to allow removing MCAS as a graduation requirement. And here with me to review all this and more are Adam Reilly, GBH political reporter, and Erin O’Brien, professor of political science at UMass Boston. Welcome to both of you.

Ms. Erin O’Brien: Good morning.

Adam Reilly: Hello, Mark.

Hertz: Thank you for having us. You know, joining us here this morning in the aftermath of all of this, how did Trump fare in Massachusetts? Let’s start there, especially compared to the last two times he was on the ballot, just looking at this state.

Reilly: The numbers I’m seeing suggest he did a little better than in previous elections, but not by a huge margin. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by 34 points here in 2020, a huge margin of victory. Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory was narrower. She beat him by 27 points. And based on the results I’m seeing right now, Harris won the state by 26 points. So a little bit weaker than Clinton in terms of her performance, but not that much.

O’Brien: Mark, I’ll add something. It’s a little hard to say because we have 87% reporting here. And when you look at some of the data, Adam and I were sort of a fun data nerd when we started here. There is evidence that almost every city has shifted slightly toward Trump. So while it may not be a huge overall change, early cuts to the data show that almost every town in Massachusetts has tilted slightly toward Trump. But of course, the vast majority of towns in Massachusetts did not vote for Trump.

Hertz: Yeah, it’s interesting. Thanks for this insight, Erin. Guys, let’s change the voting questions now. I think as I presented in my introduction, I think one of the most important and so interesting is the demise of MCAS, and that has the support of legislative leaders. So it looks like this is going to happen. This is a big change here, especially for a state like Massachusetts. Adam, why don’t you start, what’s your take on this?

Reilly: Legislative leaders are actually opposed to eliminating MCAS. It is important that we emphasize this. They don’t like this idea. Yes, they have publicly stated that they are not fans of this plan. So does Governor Healey. One poll indicated that people were more likely to support eliminating MCAS if they had children in kindergarten through 12 public schools in Massachusetts. So on one side there are parents and others who dislike the test and the way it shapes their children’s lives, and legislative leaders who firmly believe it should stay in place. The question now, I think, is whether we’re going to see a push from the legislature to simply repeal this new law, which they have done in the past. In 2003, they repealed the so-called Clean Elections Act, which would have created publicly funded elections with spending limits. It happened by a margin of 2 to 1. It was very popular. The legislature didn’t like it and got rid of it. So keep an eye out for something similar happening here. It will be interesting to see how the legislature handles this measure, because if they decide to repeal it, there will be resistance.

Hertz: Yeah. THANKS. Thanks for that. And Erin, for you, I’m so interested in this: Question 1, State Auditor Diana DiZoglio, you know, she won what I would call a personality-tinged crusade to audit the legislature. Now this seems like a process, I think, to a regular person. Now, does this matter?

O’Brien: It matters. And this actually relates to the question that we just talked about on number two. People in Massachusetts don’t like the state legislature. They think it’s inefficient, they think it’s slow and it’s not transparent. And so, as a political scientist, yes, this ballot question raises real questions about the separation of powers. But in the weeds, of course. But long story short, do you want to audit the legislature? Heck yeah. As one Commonwealth resident said. And the legislature, I think, is not going to overturn the will of the people on two issues. So I think what they’ll do is they’ll accept the will of the MCAS voters, and they’re much more likely – because it’s within baseball, it affects them directly – if they want spill anything, I think it will. will be the first number. Voters won’t like that, but the Legislature, you know, isn’t afraid of not being re-elected in Massachusetts.

Reilly: And I agree with Erin that if it’s one or the other, it will be one. And they can do it through the courts rather than through legislation.

O’Brien: RIGHT. MCAS, you know, the kids, they’re not going to object to this. The first problem concerns their work and the way they do it. And the best indicator of the behavior of elected officials is electoral self-interest.

Hertz: RIGHT. RIGHT. Well, you know, speaking of elected officials, let’s get back to the prospect of the presidential election. What now for an all-Democratic delegation? Adam, let’s start with the House. What is the perspective there?

Reilly: Well, it certainly looks like the House will be controlled by Republicans. In the House and Senate, our all-Democratic congressional delegation will raise voices in the wilderness. These are going to be difficult years for them. It will be very difficult for them to get things done. Not that bipartisan collaboration is or has not been impossible. I mean, Elizabeth Warren worked with JD Vance on banking issues and generated interest in that. But I don’t think Republicans will show a huge appetite for bipartisan cooperation over the next two years. So this is a difficult time our delegation is heading into.

Hertz: Yeah. Yeah. And I you know, I kind of want to think back to the last Trump administration, I think some people felt like Massachusetts was a bit of a blue bubble, that, you know, for people who opposed some of his policies that they felt somewhat protected by the fact that they might be here in Massachusetts. Erin, what do you think? Is this in keeping with the times? Was this the case and will it be again?

O’Brien: I think you’re right, that was the feeling. I think this feeling should go away. President Trump, or future President Trump, has been very clear that he is not going to admit mainstream Republicans. He was going to hire Trump loyalists, individuals who would do what he wanted. And I actually think Maura Healey likes this kind of fighting better. You know, progressives think she hasn’t done enough. And his position on MCAS has been unpopular among many Democrats. Maura Healey as AG relished the fight with Donald Trump. And so I think our congressional delegation and our governor are ready to fight and, in some ways, know what to do when there’s a better opponent. But I think federalism is real and Massachusetts has layers of protection. But to overuse the metaphor, the bubble will thin when President Trump has the machinery of the federal government and a Supreme Court that has given him considerable power while he has held this role.

Reilly: Get started very quickly,

Hertz: Yeah, very quickly.

Reilly: The president keeps his promise to deport more than 10 million illegal immigrants. There won’t really be a bubble in this case.

Hertz: All right. Adam Reilly of GBH, Erin O’Brien of UMass Boston. Thank you both. You are listening to GBH.