Donald Trump’s return to the White House raises important questions about how his administration views its West Asia policy. The stakes are high, ranging from Israeli-Palestinian tensions to Gulf countries’ aspirations for autonomy, influence and strategic influence in an increasingly multipolar world.

Examining Trump’s historical positions, domestic lobbies, and current regional dynamics suggests that his approach to West Asia will likely involve a mix of transactionalism, strategic detachment, and selective intervention, influenced by major constituencies. interest supporting his administration.

Israel and the Palestinian territories

A fundamental aspect of Trump’s West Asia policy will be his unwavering support for Israel, a position he has emphasized in the past and which likely aligns with influential pro-Israel lobbies. Trump has declared his desire to “end the killings” in Gaza, but his strong alliance with Israel could hinder real mediation, particularly given the far-right shift in the Israeli political landscape. The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and supported by Trump’s past policies, has expressed little interest in the kind of two-state solution that would involve substantial concessions. Far-right factions in Israel, such as Itamar Ben Gvir’s settlement movement, see Trump as a potential enabler who could look the other way if Israel escalates its policies in Gaza and the West Bank.

Trump’s position on the conflicts between Israel, Gaza and Lebanon, where violence has intensified following attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, will be crucial. Despite his promise to avoid foreign wars, Trump’s reflexive pro-Israel stance could lead him to indirectly support Israel’s hardline policies, even if they contradict his broader anti-war agenda.

Iran and the “Axis of Resistance”

Trump’s stance toward Iran has always been hostile, characterized by a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions and diplomatic isolation aimed at weakening Iran’s regional influence. His resurgent administration would likely pursue similar policies, prioritizing sanctions, particularly on Iranian oil exports, in order to undermine Iran’s economy without direct military confrontation. This approach aims to curb the “Axis of Resistance,” a coalition of groups aligned with Iran, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

While Trump is unlikely to pursue open war with Iran, he could encourage punitive measures against Iranian allies in Lebanon and Syria by empowering Israel to act with fewer constraints. Unlike the Biden administration, which sought to balance sanctions enforcement with broader diplomatic engagements, a Trump presidency could adopt a tougher, sanctions-focused policy without worrying about the implications for regional stability. However, this strategy could provoke further Iranian responses, pushing the region into a perpetual cycle of provocations and retaliation.

The growing autonomy and strategic influence of the Gulf States

Unlike in 2016, Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are now better positioned to assert their strategic autonomy and influence U.S. policy. Trump’s transactional approach is welcomed in the UAE, where leaders see a potential Trump return as an opportunity to pursue policies aligned with their own national interests, including in Libya, Sudan and Yemen, without U.S. intervention . The UAE, given its role in the Abraham Accords, hopes that Trump will continue to support his goals in West Asia while reducing values-based conditionalities that were more pronounced under Biden. Abu Dhabi sees Trump’s pragmatism as an opening to pursue policies that prioritize Emirati interests, including a hawkish stance toward Iran’s influence, although it seeks to avoid direct confrontation .

Qatar, with its strengthened relationship with the United States as a major non-NATO ally, also welcomes Trump’s return to transactional diplomacy. However, Qatar could face challenges under a Trump administration more closely aligned with pro-Israel voices in Washington. Given Doha’s mediating role between Israel and Hamas, Trump’s pro-Israel stance could limit Qatar’s room for maneuver, forcing it to tread carefully to maintain its position as a peace broker. Nonetheless, Qatar’s pragmatic diplomacy and hosting of U.S. military bases keeps it at the heart of U.S. interests, likely preserving its influence.

Saudi Arabia’s ambitions and strategic reserves

In 2017, Donald Trump made his first foreign visit as president to Saudi Arabia. However, Saudi Arabia views Trump’s return with cautious optimism, hoping for a revival of US hegemony in the region and a realignment of US policy with its own domestic goals. Trump’s transactionalism aligns with Saudi interests, giving him greater latitude to pursue his policies in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, while tempering Iran’s influence through American support. Although the Saudis would likely welcome renewed U.S. engagement in West Asia, they remain cautious about Trump’s inconsistency, particularly recalling his failure to respond to the 2019 Iranian attacks on Saudi oil facilities.

What’s next for West Asia?

Donald Trump’s approach to West Asia will likely revolve around transactional relationships, in which strategic alignment with regional allies takes precedence over a coherent regional vision. Gulf countries, particularly the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, will adopt Trump’s negotiating style, hoping it will grant them leeway to advance their interests – whether countering the Iranian influence or expand its regional influence – without restrictive conditions on governance or human rights. This dynamic also extends to Israel, where Trump’s support is expected to strengthen his stance on Palestine and its security policy, potentially exacerbating tensions in Gaza and Lebanon.

However, this high-stakes, bidder-driven approach carries risks: It could foster an environment in which allies pursue competing agendas without being checked by a stabilizing U.S. presence, thereby increasing the risk of unintended escalation. Trump’s selective involvement may keep the United States out of direct conflict, but risks encouraging an unstable balance of power, leaving the future of regional stability dependent on the ability of Gulf states and Israel to manage their rivalries and alliances independently.