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Breaking: Beyond Headlines!

    • Did Donald Trump run a very good campaign?
    aecifo

    Did Donald Trump run a very good campaign?

    Umito Posted on

    Consider the possibility (even if Democratic strategists can’t) that Donald Trump actually ran a pretty good campaign and Kamala Harris ran a pretty mediocre one.

    Not on libertarian grounds, in terms of the policies each candidate advocated, but in terms of what would be important to the people whose votes they needed. Trump has focused, quite aggressively, on borders and cost of living. He created a plan to deport those in the country illegally and sent his vice presidential pick, J.D. Vance, with arguments for how that would happen. He enlisted rocket builder/Tesla creator/lord Elon Musk to his cause, who began doling out his money. megabucks to voters pledging to vote and respect the Constitution. Trump had some weird but nonetheless relevant things he was obsessed with — no taxes on tips, for example — which is sort of normal about him. (Remember how, years ago, he was obsessed with how efficiency standards and how much hot flashes modern toilets required?)

    It took a long time for Harris — who never had to convince her party or prove her ability to meet expectations through a primary — to start populating her website with policy proposals. When she did, the policies fell short: tax credits that would help developers build more starter homes, down payment assistance for buyers that would only subsidize demand, empty words in favor of YIMBY Policies– decided at a more local level – but not much more. She talked about getting food prices under control not by working to fix inflation (and avoiding policies that could make it worse again), but by cracking down on…those greedy grocers and their price gouging. (The government can simply set price controlsshe suggested.) She ran much of her campaign on “joy” and vibes, choosing a not-so-strategic vice presidential candidate in Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and she managed to walk back some of the more progressive positions she had touted. In 2019, it was her first time running for president, presenting herself as a tough prosecutor on the side of the law, facing off against Trump, a convicted felon.

    On one of the most important issues – abortion – Harris simply didn’t have so many advantages. Although his team continued to try to strike fear into the hearts of moderate pro-choice voters, by claiming that Trump would institute a nationwide abortion ban if given the chance, Trump embraced abortion moderation (and the Republican Party platform followed to some extent, angering pro-choice people). -those sentenced to life imprisonment).

    But the Democratic Party, torn by Israel/Palestine and progressive criminal justice and identity politics policies, doesn’t seem very unified at the moment, nor does it have a clear sense of the message needed to convince voters. voters. Trump’s vote totals in traditionally blue areas – including cities like New York – were incredibly high this time; it’s as if the high cost of living and the perception of high crime and disorder lead voters to be pessimistic about Democratic policies.

    Don’t try to buy people’s votes! It certainly felt like an inflationary election in which people saw voting for Donald Trump as a rejection not only of Kamala Harris, but also of the policies put in place by the Biden administration, which she represents. And part of what the Biden administration did was pass the American Rescue Plan in 2021, which cost $1.9 trillion and was distributed. several rounds of stimulus checks to middle- and low-income Americans (defined quite generously), ostensibly to help them weather the economic turmoil – job losses, business closures – caused by the pandemic.

    At the time, it was very popular. But then the bill has expiredas always, in the form of inflation. In June 2022, inflation peaked at 9.1 percent; Since much of the developed world was also facing high inflation, this was attributable to things other than “my government tried to curry favor with me by giving me cash.” In fact, the Biden administration guard by doing so – in the form of student loan forgiveness, much of which was overturned by the courts.

    Perhaps Democrats could take away that simply giving people money doesn’t work, because that decision always has consequences, and sometimes the consequences outweigh the gains. In fact, the economic hardship created by years of higher-than-usual inflation has likely outweighed any personal budget increases (and, in many cases, increased economic activity in the form of spending) brought by stimulus checks.

    Scenes from New York: OK, so technically today I’m talking about New Jersey, our much-maligned neighbor. Yesterday I mentioned in Summary that, although Kamala Harris won, Trump came within five points of her, making it “the closest presidential victory for a Republican since George HW Bush.” lost 2.4 points in 1992,” reports Policy. “Tuesday night’s margin is more striking given that registered Democratic voters in New Jersey have since tripled compared to Republicans and now have an advantage of 900,000 voters.”

    Is New Jersey now a swing state, or at least trending in that direction?

    Taxes and the cost of living are among the highest in the country, hit hard by inflation. It is ethnically very diverse, with a large Latino and Arab American population. “I think you saw the beginnings of that in 2021. There’s a frustration on the part of New Jersey voters on economic issues, on crime issues, and I also think there’s a weak spot in the things that Trump exploited culturally,” said Republican strategist Chris Russell. said Policy.

    QUICK SHOTS

    • This Policy room full of democratic strategists adage that the country “isn’t ready for a female president” is quite amusing; I’m not sure there is “no more identity politics!” This is the takeaway given that Harris ran a weak and short campaign after reaching the position through non-traditional means, without ever having had the opportunity to make a speech to her own party in the primaries ( which should ideally be a testing ground for candidates).
    • Along the same lines: “If Trump simply relied on white resentment, he would have seen his margins shrink. » writing Ethan Strauss. “Instead, in our increasingly multi-ethnic nation, his party sees gains everywhere. The oppressed versus oppressor lens does not explain why Trump has made big inroads into this bastion of white supremacy otherwise known as of ” the Bronx. Or that MAGA country we call Chicago. Across America, our big cities, while still blue, have become redder. »
    • Honestly, yes.
    • “In a healthier republic, we would all be sitting on tingles to see the results in Iowa’s first, Pennsylvania’s eighth, Virginia’s seventh, and so on,” writing ReasonIt’s Eric Boehm. “Control of the House should be THE the biggest prize of any election cycle since Congress is constitutionally the most powerful branch of the federal government and the House is the part of Congress most directly responsive to the people.
    • lol:
    • Fair on all accounts, but forgive me for not thinking (presuming) that Trump’s pick, RFK Jr., will do a great job here:

    Umito
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