WASHINGTON, DC (NBC) – The latest NBC News national poll of the 2024 presidential campaign reveals what continues to be a neck-and-neck race, defined by opposing forces that have helped both Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in their quest for the White House.

• Stimulate Harris: growing Democratic enthusiasm, a 20-point lead over Trump on the abortion issue and an advantage for Harris on the question of which candidate will best take care of the middle class.
• Helping Trump: two-thirds of voters think the country is heading in the wrong direction, a favorable assessment of Trump’s presidency (especially compared to President Joe Biden’s current performance), and Trump’s double-digit advantage on the economy and the cost of living.

What also defines this close fight is the intense polarization in this country, including more than Gender gap of 30 points in the voting preferences of men and women, as well as 60% of voters who think the country will remain divided – regardless of who wins the presidential race.

And what also stands out in the survey is how little the contest has changed since last month, despite frenzied campaign activity in recent weeks and despite billions of dollars in advertising.

“This is very stable data compared to October,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

“We moved away from each other and picked our corner,” McInturff added. “Each side is as locked as possible, and they don’t move.”

Overall, the poll shows Harris getting support from 49% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump scores an identical 49%. Only 2% of voters say they are undecided.

This is essentially unchanged from the NBC News poll in Octoberwhen the two candidates found themselves deadlocked at 48% each.

(Learn more here from NBC News pollsters about why this poll measures registered voters and unlikely voters..)

On an expanded ballot including third-party candidates, Trump is at 47% and Harris at 46%, with a total of 7% supporting other candidates or undecided – again, unchanged from October.

Since close elections are often decided by which party will best represent its voters, the NBC News poll also provides insight into what could happen based on different turnout scenarios.

A little more favorable environment for Republicans – meaning turnout a few percentage points higher among men, white voters, and voters without a college degree — Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 50% to 48%.

But in a more favorable participation environment for Democrats – which means a slight increase in women, white voters with college degrees, and voters of color showing up to the polls — the results of this survey show Harris leading Trump by 3 points, 50% to 47%.

All of these results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Yet because of the country’s electoral college system, the presidential race will ultimately be decided by what happens in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And the latest polls in these states also reveal very tight margins.

A gender gap of 34 points

At 49%-49%, the NBC News poll results are as close as it gets. But among different groups, there remain huge differences in support for candidates.

The poll finds Harris with her biggest advantages over Trump among black voters (87% to 9%), young voters ages 18 to 29 (57% to 41%), and white voters with college degrees ( 55% to 43%).

Trump, meanwhile, leads among rural voters (75% to 23%), white voters (56% to 42%), and whites without a college degree (64% to 34%).

Yet what continues to stand out as one of the defining features of the election is the huge gender gap between Harris and Trump, with women supporting Harris by a margin of 16 points (57% to 41%) and men supporting Trump by 18 points. (58%-40%).

This net gender gap of 34 points is larger than the 30-point gap shown in the October survey.

Harris, meanwhile, holds an 8-point advantage among independent voters, 51% to 43%. Yet she has only a 9-point lead among Latino voters, 53% to 44%, although the sample size here is small and the margin of error is considerably larger compared to the global survey.

Harris is a leader on abortion and the middle class; Trump is ahead on the cost of living and borders

On issues and presidential attributes, Harris maintains a significant advantage on the issue of abortion, leading Trump by 20 points on the question of which candidate handles the issue best.

Harris also leads Trump by 9 points, 51% to 42%, the candidate most attentive to the middle class.

In contrast, Trump holds a double-digit lead on which candidate best manages the economy (51% to 41%) and the cost of living (52% to 40%). He also maintains his 25-point advantage in border security and immigration control.

But voters are essentially divided on which candidate best represents change (46% choose Harris, 41% choose Trump), and they are divided on who is competent and effective (with 47% saying Trump and 45% saying Harris). .

This is a slight reversal from October, when 48% of voters said Harris was competent and effective, compared to 43% for Trump.

Biden remains a drag on Democrats

The NBC News poll shows 41% of registered voters approve of President Joe Biden’s job, compared to 58% who say they disapprove.

That’s down slightly from 43% who approved of his work in October.

For comparison, when voters were asked to rate Trump’s tenure, 48% approve of the former president’s work, compared to 51% who disapprove — the same as the poll found from last month.

And when asked what concerns them more – Harris pursuing the same approach as Biden or Trump pursuing the same approach since his first term as president – ​​41% of voters say they are more concerned about Harris following the Biden’s path, compared to 40% who are more so. worried that Trump will repeat the actions of his term in office.

Another 14% of voters say neither is a concern.

54% say they have already voted

The poll, which ran through Saturday evening, also found that 54% of registered voters say they have already voted, with an additional 11% saying they plan to vote early.

Among those 65% of early voters, Harris leads Trump by 7 points in the head-to-head race, 53% to 46%. This is a significant change from the last NBC News poll from 2020, where Biden led Trump by more than 20 points among these voters.

Among the 33% of voters who say they will wait until Election Day, Trump holds a 16-point lead, 56% to 40%. it’s Trump 56%, Harris 40%.

That compares to Trump’s nearly 30 points among Election Day voters four years ago.

60% think the nation will remain divided

Regardless of who wins the presidential election, 60% of registered voters believe the United States will remain divided, compared to 28% who believe it will be more united.

Other survey results

Harris and Trump have almost identical popularity scores, with 43% of voters viewing her positively and 50% viewing her negatively (-7 net rating). This compares with Trump’s score of 42% positive and 51% negative (-9).

And when it comes to the battle for Congress, 47% of voters say they prefer Democrats to control Congress, while 46% want Republicans in charge. The two parties were tied on this issue last month – at 47% each.

The NBC News poll was conducted Oct. 30 to Nov. 2 among 1,000 registered voters — most of whom were contacted by cellphone — and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

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