Former president Donald Trump made participation in his rallies a source of pride.

This “weird obsession” was mentioned by the former president Barack Obama during his speech on August 20 at the Democratic National Conventionand vice president Kamala Harris used reports that rally attendees had left events early to sow doubt about the former president’s popularity during their presidential debate on September 10.

While his October 27 rally has Madison Square Garden in New York I saw fans lining the streets outside the legendary arena, attending the Republican The candidate’s rallies have been in decline since his victory in 2016.

Trump’s 2016 rallies set the stage for a seismic shift in American politics, culminating in a powerful last-minute event in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Held on November 7, 2016, the rally attracted approximately 10,000 supporters who filled the venue and overflowed into surrounding areas, capturing the energetic fervor that helped secure his victory over Hillary Clinton.

Trump once again concludes his candidacy for the White House with a event in Grand Rapidseven if it could be affected by a trend which increasingly characterizes its gatherings: the drop in attendance.

News week contacted the Trump campaign for comment.

Downward trend confirmed by Harvard analysis

The Crowd Counting Consortium (CCC), a research initiative of the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation at the Harvard Kennedy School and the University of Connecticut, tracked attendance at Trump rallies since 2017.

By August 12, the CCC had gathered crowd size data for 28 political rallies at which Trump attended and found that the events attracted an average crowd of about 5,600 attendees.

This compares favorably to the 2023 average of 4,600, for which the CCC tracked 19 events, and the 2022 average of 5,200 across 21 events.

However, this represents a significant drop from the average of nearly 15,000 people across eight events in 2021, including the now infamous “”fight like hell” speech given to The Ellipse just hours before the January 21, 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol, in which the House Select Committee investigating the riots said 53,000 people were present.

In 2020, the 83 gatherings recorded by the CCC attracted an average of about 5,000 participants, again down from the averages of 11,000 over 19 events in 2019, 7,400 over 44 events in 2018, and 8,100 over 10 events in 2017.

The figures underscore that while his events still draw sizable crowds, they fall far short of the heights of his first presidential campaign.

How do Trump’s rallies compare to those of Harris and Biden?

Between late July, when Harris became the presumptive and then official Democratic Party nominee, and August 12, the vice president’s rallies averaged about 13,400 attendees.

That’s more than double the usual turnout for Trump rallies in 2024, although the former president’s rallies have been well attended since the start of the year, and Harris’ numbers may have been boosted by the “euphoria” that some felt. said it had defined the first steps of its campaign after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race.

Before its withdrawal, Biden It has not enjoyed the same level of public support, with its 2024 rallies averaging about 1,300 participants, the CCC said.

In 2020, Biden made only a few appearances before intentionally small crowds due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and attendance averaged 1,600 and 2,400 in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

Factors contributing to the decline

Several factors may have contributed to the decline in attendance at the Trump rally. The initial novelty of his outsider status and fiery rhetoric in 2016 was a major draw, but by 2020 he had become an incumbent, with years of politics and controversy shaping public perception.

The decline in attendance also reflects wider strategic changes in Republican campaign. Trump’s rallies have continued with their showmanship, incorporating patriotic music, dramatic entrances and speeches aimed at reinforcing his protest message.

“We basically produce rock concerts in a week, and we do it several times a month,” said Justin Caporale, deputy campaign director. Reuters in April.

In contrast, Harris and Biden favored more intimate engagements, connecting with voters in community settings like union halls and churches. These events, while less visually spectacular, align with modern Democratic strategies aimed at personalized voter engagement.

It is important to note that the decrease in crowd sizes does not suggest a decrease in enthusiasm or support for the former president, nor a decline in his ability to attract media attention and mobilize its base.

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