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    • Tropical Storm Sara forms and could threaten Florida as a hurricane
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    Tropical Storm Sara forms and could threaten Florida as a hurricane

    Umito Posted on

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    • Tropical Depression Nineteen formed Thursday morning
    • The system is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara later today.
    • It is too early to tell how strong it will be or whether it will threaten Florida.

    Tropical Storm Sara formed this afternoon and threatens to cause “life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides” in Honduras throughout the weekend, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. A turn towards Florida is still possible, forecasters believe.

    “We now expect this storm to spend more time over land in Central America. This will reduce the intensity of the wind before it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. This storm could be pulled northeast by an area of ​​high pressure over Florida. A decline in the jet stream over the central United States will create a path for this storm to be projected toward Florida,” Jon Porter, AccuWeather chief meteorologist, said in an emailed statement.

    “We could see heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of central and south Florida next week,” he said. “Florida does not need more impacts from tropical storms. Many people are still recovering and trying to rebuild after hurricanes earlier this year.

    The NHC forecast expects Tropical Storm Sara to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday while still over Central America before entering the Gulf of Mexico, where it could strengthen again.

    “If it spent several days over land, this could mean a less defined depression merging with the front, with impacts primarily in the form of increased showers and thunderstorms across the state,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, based in Tallahassee.

    “If it spent little or no time over Central America, a legitimate hurricane threat to the Florida peninsula is a realistic scenario. Most likely, this conditional threat would focus on southwest Florida. Florida or the Keys, with potential for cross-impacts on Southeast Florida, such as in Irene in 1999 or Wilma in 2005,” he said.

    ➤ Spaghetti Patterns for Tropical Depression Nineteen

    ➤ Weather alerts by SMS: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events by location

    November hurricanes rarely make landfallbut they arrived. The next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season would be Sara.

    Here is the latest update from the NHC as of 1 p.m. EST on Thursday, November 14:

    Tropical Storm Sara: What You Need to Know

    Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm center. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

    • Location: 15.7N 82.9W, approximately 205 miles east-southeast of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, 50 miles northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border
    • Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
    • Current movement: West at 12 mph
    • Minimum central pressure: 999 MB

    How strong is Tropical Storm Sara and where is it going?

    At 1:00 a.m. EST (6 p.m. UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.7 north and longitude 82.9 west . The system is moving westward near 12 mph (19 km/h). This movement is expected to continue until today, bringing the center closer to the eastern coast of Honduras. The system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras Friday evening and throughout the weekend.

    Data from Air Force Reserve aircraft indicates maximum sustained winds increased to near 40 mph (65 kph) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible if the system remains above water.

    Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 km from the center, primarily in the northern semicircle.

    The minimum central pressure estimated based on dropsonde data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

    Spaghetti Patterns for Tropical Storm Sara

    Special note regarding spaghetti models: The illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are equal. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help it make its forecasts.

    ➤ Spaghetti Patterns for Tropical Storm Sara

    Monitoring, warnings issued

    For an explanation of what watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.

    Tropical Storm Warning:

    • The northern coast of Honduras forms Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.
    • The Bay Islands of Honduras

    Tropical Storm Watch:

    • The northeast coast of Nicaragua, from Puerto Cabezas north to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

    Will Tropical Storm Sara be the next hurricane to hit Florida?

    It’s too early to say whether that will be the case, although some models suggest it could hit the state.

    In the latest NHC update, forecasters said a strong mid-level ridge was steering the system west toward Central America and the storm would meander this weekend after the ridge breaks .

    Key messages from the National Hurricane Center

    • Through early next week, heavy rains will cause significant flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides in parts of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua.
    • Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras and adjacent Bay Islands, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
    • The system is expected to approach Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula early next week, where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates.
    • It is too early to determine what impacts, if any, the system may have on parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, by the middle of next week. Residents in these areas should monitor forecast updates regularly.

    Current Forecast: How Strong Could Tropical Storm Sara Be?

    • From 10 a.m.: 35 mph
    • 12 hours: 40 mph
    • 24 hours: 45 mph, near the coast
    • 36 hours: 45 mph, near the coast
    • 48 hours: 45 mph, near the coast
    • 60 hours: 50 mph, near the coast
    • 72 hours: 50 mph, over water
    • 96 hours: 35 mph, inland
    • 120 hours: 35 mph, over water

    What impact could Tropical Storm Sara have?

    PRECIPITATION: Through early next week, precipitation is expected to reach 10 to 20 inches, with isolated storms totaling about 30 inches in area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will result in large areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, particularly along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere in the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches until the beginning of next week. This will result in areas of possibly significant flash flooding, as well as potential landslides.

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Warning Area and possibly the Watch Area beginning later today.

    STORM WAVE: Storm surge could raise water levels up to 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast, in areas of outflow winds along the northern coast of Honduras . Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

    National Hurricane Center Map: What else is there and how likely are they to strengthen?

    Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

    What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

    Hatched areas on a tropical map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

    The colors clearly indicate the likelihood of a system developing, with yellow being low, orange being medium, and red being high.

    The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

    “If a system is close to land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue advisories, even if the system has not become a full storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

    When is hurricane season in Florida?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms past near your city

    Excessive precipitation forecast

    Stay informed. Receive weather alerts by SMS

    What do watches and warnings mean?

    A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the first expected appearance of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.

    A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area, usually within 48 hours.

    What’s next?

    We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.

    (This story has been updated with new information.)

    Umito
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