Big Ten football gets underway on the shores of Lake Michigan as Northwestern hosts No. 2 Ohio State on Saturday. Let’s check the latest predictions for the game from an expert analytical soccer model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State improved to 5-1 in Big Ten play, but still sits behind the Oregon team it lost to and the undefeated Indiana team it will host next weekend, so there is still a lot of work to do.

Northwestern improved to 2-4 in conference play after beating Purdue two weeks ago, but has certainly struggled on offense, ranking 119th in assists and 126th in scoring nationally.

What does the analytics suggest when the Buckeyes and Wildcats meet in this Big Ten matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get some insight into how Ohio State and Northwestern compare in this Week 12 college football matchup.

As expected, the models side with the Buckeyes rather than the Wildcats in this one.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will beat Northwestern by an expected score of 37-6 and win the game by an expected margin of 31.2 points.

The model gives the Buckeyes a near-perfect 97% chance of total victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Is it good this season? So far, the SP+ model is 292-263-8 ATS with a 52.6 winning percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.

Ohio State is a 28.5-point favorite against Northwestern, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game.

And he declined to release money odds given that the Buckeyes are heavy favorites.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

A slight majority of bettors expect the Wildcats to make things closer against the Buckeyes, according to the latest consensus picks for the matchup.

The North-West becomes 53 percent bets either to win outright in the upset, or, more likely, to keep the final margin below 29 points in the event of a defeat.

The other 47 percent The Ohio State betting project will win the game and cover the big point spread.

Ohio State ranks No. 1 nationally by winning its games with an average of 27.9 points this season, while Northwestern enters the game with an average 6 points worse than its opponents, ranking 92nd in FBS.

These margins have diverged over the last three games.

Ohio State was 18.7 points better than competition over this period, while Northwestern averaged 13.3 points worse than his opponents over this period.

But things are getting a little closer when it comes to location.

Ohio State is 12.3 points better than its opponents when playing on the road this season, compared to Northwestern being 9 points worse when playing at home.

How do the teams compare per game?

Ohio State ranks 4th nationally in average 0.590 points per game in attack, against a North-West defense which is 42nd in granting 0.336 points per game on average.

Offensively, the Wildcats only rank 112th in FBS with 0.292 points per game while the Buckeyes’ defense is 2nd in the nation, allowing only 0.176 points per game on average.

Most other analytical models also heavily favor the Buckeyes over the Wildcats.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select winners.

Ohio State is the big favorite on the road, winning in 95.3 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the game.

That leaves Northwestern as the presumptive winner in the remaining games. 4.7 percent sims.

How does all this translate into expected margin of victory in the game?

Ohio State should be 26.7 points better than Northwestern on the same field in the current composition of both teams, according to the model’s latest predictions.

More… Ohio State vs. Northwestern Prediction: What the Analytics Say

Ohio State is first among Big Ten teams and third nationally with a 92.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Buckeyes a total win projection of 11 games this season.

Northwestern’s playoff hopes are about to be toast, but not completely extinguished.

Model predicts Wildcats to win 4.6 games in 24.

This results in a 10.9 percent shooting to become bowl eligible this season.

When: Saturday November 16
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern Time
Television: Big Ten Network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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