Betting odds for president-elect Donald TrumpThe Cabinet’s most controversial nominees painted an unfavorable picture of their chances of succeeding in light of former Rep. Matt Gaetzfailure to gain support from the United States Senate for his confirmation.

Betting odds took on a new dimension after media outlets noted that they served as an early indicator that Trump was poised for Election Day victory over the Democratic nominee, vice president. Kamala Harris.

The chances were initially decreased considerably In the days leading up to the election, but just 24 hours before people went to the polls, the odds rose sharply, with crypto betting site Polymarket noting a 58% chance of Trump winning a second term.

Polymarket is partially funded by Peter Thielbillionaire and Silicon Valley major Republican donor who supported Trump and helped promote the vice president-elect J.D. Vance.

These odds continued to serve as a decent indicator of overall attitudes and analyses, such as when Gaetz’s chances of winning the U.S. attorney general job peaked at 45 percent, but fell to around 21 percent just a day before withdrawing his name for review in the face of a second allegation of sexual misconduct and mounting pressure. Gaetz, a Florida Republican, denies the allegations.

If these trends indicate some reliability in betting odds as an indicator, then Pete Hegseth, Trump’s defense secretary pick, should be concerned as his odds continue to decline amid his own assault allegations sexual.

Hegseth’s nomination has already faced strong opposition due to his lack of qualifications, with many criticisms focusing more on his tenure as president. Fox News host during his tenure as an Army National Guard. However, the revelation of a 2017 sexual assault allegation in which he later paid the accuser out of fear of losing his job.

Hegseth has vigorously denied the allegations, insisting that the encounter was consensual and that he feared the allegations, even if false, could cost him his job.

Betting odds haven’t found his defense favorable, and perhaps those betting believe that Gaetz’s withdrawal weakens the general feeling that Trump will secure his nominations, problematic as it is. Thus, Hegseth saw his chances drop from 74 percent to 52 percent on Friday, then they dropped again to 47 percent, although on Saturday they rose again to 57 percent.

News week contacted the Trump transition team by email for comment Saturday afternoon.

Former Democratic Representative from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard faces his own bad news spiral as a personality Republicans such as Nikki HaleyTrump’s ex The United Nations ambassador, spoke out and opposed her nomination to the post of director of national intelligence, which oversees 18 intelligence community agencies, such as the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the National Security Agency (NSA).

Haley criticized Gabbard for his 2017 visit and his “photo session” with the Syrian president Bashar al-Assadcalling the decision “disgusting.” She referenced her own speeches at the UN in which she attacked al-Assad and showed photos of dead children “killed by chemical attacks.”

“For her to say Assad wasn’t behind this – literally everything she said about it was a Russian talking point. Every moment of it. It was Russian propaganda,” said Haley.

Gabbard has frequently criticized Trump’s foreign policy, particularly on ending the Iran nuclear deal. Since leaving office, Gabbard has joined the Republican Party and supported Trump’s 2024 campaign.

Earlier this week, Gabbard had an 81 percent chance of securing her nomination, according to Polymarket, but those odds dropped to 59 percent on Friday, although, again, she saw a slight uptick to around 64 percent. SATURDAY.

When one commenter on Polymarket asked about the “hard” crash Gabbard has experienced in recent days, others argued that Republicans care more about national security than other issues, which could end up make Gabbard’s success too difficult.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whom Trump chose to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), has seen little progress in either positive or negative directions. Kennedy Jr. remains at about a 70 percent chance of getting his job, according to Polymarket, after peaking at an 80 percent chance last week and hitting a low of 68 percent on Friday this week.

Other candidates remain above 90 percent, including the governor of North Dakota. Doug Burgum for Interior Secretary, former Rep. Sean Duffy for Transportation Secretary, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem for director of Homeland Security and former Rep. Lee Zeldin for head of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

The odds don’t yet factor in a slew of new appointments Trump announced Friday to close out the week, including Russell Thurlow Vought, a key architect of Project 2025as Director of Management and Budget (OMB). Vought had served in Trump’s first administration, something the president-elect highlighted in his announcement.