While several key states could influence the outcome of the 2024 election, US political scientist, lawyer and elections expert Dr. David Schultz believes Kamala Harris’ path to victory likely depends on Pennsylvania. According to the Hamline University professor, the election will likely be decided by a narrow margin of 150,000 to 200,000 votes spread across seven key states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The Kamala Harris campaign has adopted a strategy that matches Dr. Schultz’s analysis. Last week, Jen O’Malley-Dillon, Harris’ campaign manager, released a video describing how the vice president has multiple paths to victory in these states.

During our interview, Dr. Schultz pointed out that while the other Blue Wall states, Michigan and Wisconsin, are also critical battlegrounds, Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes make a victory of Harris.

“For Harris, if she fails to win Pennsylvania, her calculations become much more complicated“, explained the political scientist. For Donald Trump, Pennsylvania is helping him cross the finish line. However, “if it sweeps North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona“, he could afford to lose Pennsylvania and still surpass the magic number of 270 Electoral College votes.

The politics of vice-presidential choice

Some may point out the close the polls in Pennsylvania and wonder if the Harris campaign made a mistake in not choosing Governor Josh Shapiro as his running mate. However, Dr. Schultz does not believe that choosing Governor Shapiro would have guaranteed the vice president a victory in Pennsylvania. “One of the common misconceptions, which is generally not true, is that vice presidential candidates matter” Schultz said during our conversation when asked directly about the circumstances of Harris’ vice presidential pick.

Dr. Schultz cited the 2008 race as a recent example of a race in which the choice of a vice president made a difference.

Although this may seem surprising, Dr. Schultz noted that “about 40% of Americans cannot name who the sitting vice president is at any timet.” If such a large portion of the population does not know who the person is, Dr. Schultz considers it exaggerated that a sizable percentage of voters are deciding based on who the person is running for office. other of the main parties.

The election expert’s only caveat was that in this specific race where the results are expected to be so close, Gov. Shapiro’s choice “might be enough in this state,” even if he “only moved 2, 3, 4,000 voters.” However, when making these kinds of decisions, trying to target specific voters, we are venturing into what Dr. Schultz described as “the logic of small numbers.”