Israel attacked military targets in Iran with predawn airstrikes Saturday in retaliation for the ballistic missile barrage the Islamic Republic fired on Israel earlier this month. It was the first time that the Israeli army openly attacked Iran.

The Israeli military said its planes targeted facilities that Iran used to make the missiles fired at Israel as well as surface-to-air missile sites.

Above all, there is no indication that Iranian oil or nuclear sites have been affected. Iran insisted the strikes caused only “limited damage,” and Iranian state media downplayed them. Taken together, these steps suggest, at least for now, that both countries are trying to avoid a more serious escalation.

Yet the strikes risk pushing the sworn enemies toward all-out war at a time of crisis. spiral of violence in the Middle Eastwhere militant groups supported by Iran – notably Hamas in Gaza And Hezbollah in Lebanon – are already at war with Israel.

Following the airstrikes, Iran’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying it “considers itself entitled and obliged to defend itself against foreign acts of aggression.” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran had “no limits” in defending its interests.

But on Saturday evening, the Iranian military issued a carefully worded statement suggesting that any ceasefire in Israeli ground offensives in Gaza and Lebanon would trump any possible retaliatory strike.

Iran’s official IRNA news agency said four people were killed, all linked to military air defense. The Iranian military said the strikes targeted military bases in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran provinces. But Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guards have remained silent.

US President Joe Biden told reporters that Israel had given him warning before the strikes and said it appeared “they only hit military targets”. His administration won insurance from Israel in mid-October that it would not affect nuclear and oil installations.

“I hope this is the end,” Biden said.

Israel’s first open attack on Iran

Iran had not faced a barrage of sustained fire from a foreign enemy since its war with Iraq in the 1980s. Explosions could be heard in Tehran until sunrise.

It is also widely believed that Israel is behind a limited airstrike in April near a major air base in Iran that hit the radar system of a Russian-made air defense battery. Iran had previously fired a wave of missiles and drones in Israel, causing minimal damageafter two Iranian generals were killed in an apparent Israeli airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic post in Syria.

On October 1, Iran launched at least 180 missiles at Israel in retaliation for devastating blows Israel has landed against Hezbollah. They caused little damage and a few injuries. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran “made a grave mistake.”

“Iran attacked Israel twice, including in places endangering civilians, and paid the price,” said Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, an Israeli army spokesman. He added: “If the Iranian regime made the mistake of starting a new round of escalations, we would be forced to respond. »

Footage released by the Israeli military showed operatives preparing to depart for the strikes aboard American-made F-15 and F-16 fighter jets.

The Iranian military statement describes Israeli warplanes as firing light missiles at a distance of 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the Iranian border. The missiles hit air defense radar stations, the military said, some of which were already under repair.

However, Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard – which oversees its vast arsenal of ballistic missiles – remained silent, raising questions about whether anything had been hit at their bases. The Guard is one of the main centers of power in Iran’s theocracy, with the regular army having been sidelined since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The Israeli attack did not destroy highly visible or symbolic facilities that could provoke a significant response from Iran, said Yoel Guzansky, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, who worked previously for Israel’s National Security Council.

It also gives Israel room for escalation if necessary, and targeting air defense systems weakens Iran’s abilities to defend itself against future attacks, he said, adding that if it If there were Iranian retaliations, they should be limited.

Israel has once again shown that its military precision and capabilities are superior to those of Iran, said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the London-based think tank Chatham House.

“By targeting military sites and missile installations above nuclear and energy infrastructure, Israel is also signaling that it is not seeking further escalation at this time,” Vakil said. “This is a sign that diplomacy and behind-the-scenes efforts to moderate the strike have been successful.”

After the strikes, the streets of the Iranian capital were calm, children went to school and shops opened. There were long queues outside gas stations – a common occurrence when military violence erupts as people stock up on supplies. But some residents appeared anxious and avoided conversations with an Associated Press reporter.

Mixed reactions at home and abroad

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid criticized the decision to avoid “strategic and economic objectives”, saying on X that “we could and should have demanded a much higher price from Iran” .

The United States warned of further retaliation, while Britain and Germany said Iran should not respond. “All acts of escalation are condemnable and must stop,” declared the spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General.

Saudi Arabia was one of several countries in the region to condemn the strike, calling it “a violation of Iran’s sovereignty and a violation of international laws and norms.” Hezbollah and Hamas condemned the Israeli attack.

Regional tensions have skyrocketed.

In Lebanon, dozens of people were killed and thousands injured in September when pagers and walkie talkies used by Hezbollah exploded in attacks attributed to Israel. A massive Israeli airstrike the following week near Beirut killed longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Israel launched a land invasion of southern Lebanon. More than a million The Lebanese were displacedand the death toll has risen sharply as airstrikes hit Beirut and its surrounding areas.

Enemies for decades

Israel and Iran have been bitter enemies since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Israel views Iran as its greatest threat, citing its leaders’ calls for the destruction of Israel, their support for anti-Israel militant groups and the country’s nuclear program.

During this years-long shadow war, an alleged Israeli assassination campaign killed prominent Iranian nuclear scientists, and Iranian nuclear facilities were hacked or sabotaged. Meanwhile, Iran has been accused of attacks on shipping in the Middle East.

The shadow war has increasingly come into the spotlight since October 7, 2023, when Hamas and other militants attacked Israel. They killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took some 250 hostages in Gaza. In response, Israel launched a devastating air and land offensive against Hamas. There are around a hundred left, around a third of whom are believed to be dead.

More than 42,000 Palestinians have been killed in the largely devastated Gaza Strip, according to local health authorities, who do not differentiate between civilians and fighters but say more than half were women and children.