Juan Soto’s free agency has absorbed most of Hot Stove’s oxygen so far this offseason, and for good reason; players as good and as young as Soto don’t come on the market very often, and his next contract could very well be the richest in MLB history. Soto is the first and biggest domino to fall this winter, and wherever he decides to sign, he will reshape the landscape of the league.

But even though Soto is the most valuable free agent available, he’s far from the only one. This is one of the deepest starting pitching classes we’ve seen in some time, and it’s headlined by a true ace: 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes.

Burnes may not be as flashy as Soto, but he could have just as big an impact in the 2025 World Series. The right-hander has been brilliant for the Baltimore Orioles last season, helping lead the team to a playoff berth (and doing just about everything he could in a Wild Card sweep at the hands of Kansas City Royals). He’s one of the league’s most prominent workhorses — 2024 marked his third straight season of 193 or more innings — and every contender would kill to put someone this reliable and excellent at the top of their rotation.

But who will end up unloading him? While the baseball world (and several front offices) awaits Soto, the Burnes sweepstakes has yet to be fully launched. But recent reports have given us a preliminary idea of ​​which teams are on the right and which should be considered favorites, so let’s break it down.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work at The Baseball Insiders Podcastsubscribe to The moonshotour weekly MLB newsletter, and join the Discord for exclusive information leading up to the MLB offseason.

Both ESPN’s Jeff Passan And Mark Feinsand of MLB.com threw out Toronto’s name when listing Burnes’ potential suitors, and general manager Ross Atkins made clear he’s looking for rotation upgrades this winter. And for good reason: The starting pitching situation is thin beyond Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt, and Bassitt (one year left before free agency) Gausman (two years) could be out fairly soon. The Jays desperately need to make a splash after a last-place finish in 2024, and Burnes would be a big one.

Unfortunately, it’s hard to see how the math could work. Toronto is reportedly all-in on chasing Soto, but even if they don’t give the outfielder a $700 million contract, there’s still an extension to worry about for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, or both (plus holes to fill). infield and outfield). At this point, a more mid-tier option like Yusei Kikuchi or Jack Flaherty would seem more logical.

On paper, this seems to be an ideal fit. Boston wants to convince everyone that they’re finally ready to spend big after years of declining payrolls, and that the rotation would be a great place to do it; Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello are nice, but would look even better behind a true #1.

Even though I hate pouring cold water on the Red Sox hype train, I’ll believe John Henry is willing to pay over $200 million for a 30-year-old starting pitcher when I see him. This is just too unusual for this group of owners, considering how the last few years have gone. There’s a reason Boston has been linked to trade targets like Garrett Crochet; it’s much more likely that they will approach the pitch by drawing from their pipeline of top prospects.

I know, I know, the San Francisco Giants Is Charlie Brown trying to kick the football when it comes to signing big-name free agents at this point. But it appears the team is about to go after Juan Soto, which means there will be money to spend, and Passan went out of his way to nominate San Francisco in the draft lottery fate of Burnes.

The Giants have some pitching depth with Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks and Hayden Birdsong returning for 2025, but an ace would tie this group together really well. A mid-order bat is top priority here; If the team can’t lure Soto or, say, Willy Adames to the Bay, they could pivot to Burnes — and they might be able to lure the Bakersfield, Calif., native with the right offer. Burnes played his college ball nearby at St. Mary’s, and Oracle Park is a heck of a place to throw.

The good news is that, based on all available evidence, general manager Mike Elias has made bring back Burnes a top priority – and new owner David Rubenstein has the financial muscle to back it up. Baltimore has decent depth options, but they don’t have anyone who can reasonably replace their star at the top of the rotation, especially not with Grayson Rodriguez a question mark as he returns from an injury-shortened season. If the O’s want to keep pace with the Yankees and Red Sox in the rugged AL East, they need impact pitching, and Burnes is their best chance to get it.

Unfortunately for them, their main competition might be the two richest teams in all of baseball. Baltimore’s new salary aggressiveness is good to see, but there are levels to it, and no matter how much they want Burnes back, it’s hard to imagine a world in which they outbid the two teams that have them previous on this list.

Most of the Mets’ offseason thus far has revolved around Soto and whether owner Steve Cohen can lure the outfielder across town with a record deal.

But let’s say Soto stays with the Yankees or, even worse, decides to return to the West Coast to play for the Yankees. Los Angeles Dodgers. In this case, David Stearns should immediately pivot to his rotation, where Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana are all free agents. There aren’t any other position players worth a deal near Soto — at this point, New York seems more than willing to let Pete Alonso go — but there are a few pitchers, headlined by Burnes.

Landing Burnes would be the perfect way to stabilize this pitching staff and the second-best use of Cohen’s money if Soto ends up elsewhere. And New York would have a lot to offer beyond that nine-figure deal, with a team coming off a trip to the NLCS and a rabid fan base. But the team ahead of them here has all that and more.

When MLB Network’s Jon Morosi handicapped Burnes’ coin toss earlier this week, he highlighted two teams: the Orioles and Dodgers. Los Angeles is sniffing around Soto, but the majority of the team’s attention seems to be directed towards rotation: Flaherty and Walker Buehler are both free agents, while Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May all have serious health issues, and the team needs to add more behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto before next season .

Of course, being the Dodgers, they’re going to look to do it in great style. Burnes grew up just 110 miles north of Dodger Stadium, and he would be an ideal stabilizer for this pitching staff in 2025 and beyond. Plus, playing for the defending World Series champions is always a compelling selling point, especially when it comes to a $200 million-plus contract.