The 49ers should dominate Tampa Bay this Sunday.

They are favorites with 5.5 points. They are coming off a bye week while Tampa is coming off a grueling overtime loss Monday night. Christian McCaffrey could make his season debut. And the Buccaneers have lost three games in a row.

And yet, this game could still be difficult for the 49ers, especially for their defense.

The Bucs currently have the fifth-ranked offense in the NFL. And even though they’re missing their two star receivers — Mike Evans and Chris Godwin — they’re still averaging 5.1 yards per carry, which is fourth-best in the NFL.

Meanwhile, run defense is a problem for the 49ers. Their run defense grade on Pro Football Focus ranks 26th out of 32 teams, and their tackling grade ranks 20th.

Just a few weeks ago, we saw the Chiefs beat the 49ers without starting wide receivers. Patrick Mahomes didn’t even play particularly well in this game. And yet the Chiefs scored 28 points on the 49ers simply by pounding the ball between the tackles with Kareem Hunt, running jet sweeps with wide receivers, and throwing screen passes to tight ends. The 49ers don’t defend these plays well.

The 49ers’ strength lies in their coverage. It’s hard to throw up the middle against them because Fred Warner is the most covered linebacker ever, and it’s hard to throw downfield because the 49ers corners are so good.

So if the Buccaneers try to force their way to victory, the 49ers will likely intercept Baker Mayfield once or twice and win.

But if the Bucs try to claw their way to victory, they just might pull off an upset.

What an interesting test.

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