When the polls close on Tuesday, we will, of course, be watching the statewide results in the presidential battlegrounds. But while you wait for the calls, you can check certain counties for clues – although not definitive – about the contours of the vote.

Here are some counties whose results can indicate whether different demographic groups are leaning toward Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump.

— White working-class voters

Macomb County, Michigan

Macomb County, a stretch of suburbs and exurbs north of Detroit, is home to large numbers of white, working-class voters who broke the so-called Blue Wall in 2016, passing Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to Republicans for the first time in over a year. more than a quarter of a century and winning the Trump presidency.

Four years later, enough of them came back to vote Democratic, helping Joe Biden flip those states. How these voters fare this year could be decisive again.

In 2020, Trump won 53.4% ​​of the vote in Macomb County, so if his total exceeds Tuesday’s, it would be a good sign for the former president.

— College-educated suburban voters

Chester County, Pennsylvania

Chester County, a wealthy area west of Philadelphia, is full of highly educated suburban voters who have shifted to voting Democratic since 2016, one of the most electorally significant realignments in the Trump era.

Educated suburban voters, particularly women, helped fuel Democratic victories in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Abortion has been a motivating issue for suburban women, and whether we’re seeing a big “Dobbs effect” continues to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, this is a place where he might be visible.

In 2020, Biden won 57.8% of the vote in Chester County. The Harris campaign is hoping for a similar outcome.

— Black voters

Fulton County, Georgia

Black voters are a powerful bloc in Fulton County, where Atlanta is located, and Trump is trying to narrow Democrats’ advantage there.

Historically, Democrats have relied on huge margins in metropolitan areas with large black populations to win states that, on a traditional results map, appear primarily red due to strong Republican support in large but less populated geographic areas . This is largely what allowed Biden to win Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In 2020, Biden won 72.6% of the vote in Fulton County. Harris, who has underperformed Biden’s support among black voters, according to polls, would need a massive turnout here again.

— Latino voters

Yuma County, Arizona

Yuma County, located in southwest Arizona along the border with Mexico, is two-thirds Latino and has been at the center of debates about the effects of immigration clandestine. How he votes will give some idea of ​​how Latino voters weigh this issue, although it’s important to note that there is also a significant minority of white, working-class voters here.

Another word of caution: It’s difficult to identify indicators for Latino voters as a whole, in part because Latinos are so diverse. Cuban Americans in Florida, for example, are politically distinct from Mexican Americans in Arizona.

In 2020, Trump won 52.2% of the vote in Yuma County. That’s a higher share than the 48.1% he won in 2016, and his campaign hopes to extend that momentum.

— Arab American voters

Wayne County, Michigan

Wayne County is home to Detroit, a city with a large black population, but it is also home to Dearborn, a majority-Arab suburb that has been the epicenter of anger over the Biden administration and Harris campaign’s support for Israel in his war against Hamas.

Many voters here have always supported Democrats, but are disappointed in Harris because she says she will continue supplying weapons to Israel. Some said they would reluctantly vote for her anyway, but others are considering voting for Trump or a third-party candidate, or even not voting at all. Both margins of victory and turnout will be important.

In 2020, Biden won 68.4% of the vote in Wayne County. The Harris camp hopes it can keep the county blue despite tensions over Middle East politics.

— Jewish voters

Montgomery County, Pennsylvania

Montgomery County is home to significant Jewish populations, particularly in Lower Merion Township, west of Philadelphia. This is an imperfect indicator – no country is majority Jewish, and many places with the largest Jewish minorities, like New York City, are not in battleground states – but it will help show another element of the electoral impact of Israel’s war in Gaza. Band.

Trump has tried to appeal to Jewish voters, saying his support for Israel would be uncompromising compared to that of Harris, who has sometimes criticized him. In doing so, however, he often used anti-Semitic clichés.

In 2020, Biden won 62.6% of the vote in Montgomery County. Both the Harris and Trump campaigns view Pennsylvania as crucial to securing victory, so a victory in the county would be a sign of hope.

— Young voters

Dane County, Wisconsin

Dane County is home to the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and like other counties with large college campuses, it will highlight trends among young people, including new voters.

Young voters have always been an important group for Democrats, and Harris has generated more enthusiasm among them than Biden did earlier this year. But questions remain about his support, particularly because of Israel, and there is evidence of a growing gender gap caused by young men’s shift to the right.

In 2020, Biden won 75.5% of the vote in Dane County. The Harris campaign hopes a victory here would signal that its strategy to target young voters is paying off.

— Rural voters

Peach County, Georgia

Choosing a benchmark county for rural voters is difficult because they are spread across so many counties, most of which are heavily Republican.

But one option is Peach County, a part of central Georgia that, unlike most rural counties, is closely divided between white and black voters. The situation has oscillated between Republicans and Democrats in previous elections.

In 2020, Trump won 51.8% of the vote in Peach County. Strong pro-Trump turnout would be a sign that his campaign’s bet on rural voters could tilt the state in his favor.

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This article was originally published in The New York Times.

By Maggie Astor and Nate Cohn/Nick Hagen
c. 2024 The New York Times Company