In his victory speech, President-elect Trump declared“I’m not going to start a war; I will stop the wars. The situation in Israel or Ukraine was not explicitly mentioned in his remarks, but one could almost feel the winds blowing harder in Jerusalem and kyiv at that moment.

It doesn’t take a genius to assume that the 47th president wants de-escalation in both regions. But while the war between Ukraine and Russia seems to become more complex by the day, the dynamics on the Israeli fronts are different, especially with Lebanon and the emerging ceasefire agreement, which is being prepared by the current American administration.

In this area, the will of the future White House could materialize as soon as possible. However, if he continues on the current path, he could easily be missed.

After more than a year of incessant fighting, the potential tranquility on the Israeli-Lebanese border is something to be welcomed. Too many Israelis have been killed and terrorized by Hezbollah. An unimaginable number of Lebanese people do not feel safe in their own country. Both peoples hope for a day when southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut will no longer be used as a point of confrontation between Israel and a terrorist organization.

In this sense, the translation of the Israeli military operation against Hezbollah into a possible political act gives hope to many. From a geopolitical point of view, this marks the desired evolution from war to diplomacy.

For millions of people in the region, the relationship between the two phases is not just an academic axiom but an essential symbiosis. Tranquility is good for the economy. It is vital for the human soul and body. And when life resumes its course, it’s almost tempting to wonder why it couldn’t have happened before.

The details disclosed by the ceasefire agreement emerging embody these hopes. However, while the media and public discourse naturally focus on the practicalities that this entails, they are not the main point. Political developments, strategic considerations and future leaks will likely modify them and bring new directions.

However, the common denominator between the articles is what we should be looking at. The fundamental assumption is that Lebanon can fulfill its obligations. This is a problematic assumption because, in recent years, Lebanon has no longer just become “a country in difficulty”. This is a nation that is experiencing a real crisis in almost every possible way.

According to a new World Bank Report Since May this year, poverty in Lebanon “has more than tripled over the past decade, reaching 44 percent of the total population.” Many households have adopted “various coping strategies, including reducing food consumption and…reducing health expenditure, with likely serious long-term consequences.”

The American government ranks Lebanon in 139th place in the ranking of countries regarding GDP per capita for 2023. In its analysis of GDP 2024, the International Monetary Fund doesn’t even mention Lebanon. And the dysfunction of the political system only intensifies these financial challenges. There has been no president since October 2022, while the current government has been an interim government since the failure to form a permanent coalition following the May 2022 elections.

It’s worth noting though that lack of money isn’t necessarily the problem here. Following the 2006 war between Israel and Lebanon and until 2022, the American administration invested a substantial amount of $3 billion within the Lebanese army to ensure that it can enforce its sovereignty in the south of the country and act as a stabilizing force. This neither enabled nor encouraged him to counter Hezbollah and help Lebanon get on the right track.

One reason was the fear of breaking the social fabric of the country and leading to civil war. And with approximately 50 percent of the army’s combat personnel being Shiite sympathizers of Hezbollah, the reality on the eve of the current war was one of collaboration between the two.

The Israeli military allowed the terrorist group to use its military infrastructure to spy on Israel Defense Forces soldiers. and help cover up Hezbollah’s illegal military activities in southern Lebanon. The price is paid by the Lebanese people.

This is just one example to illustrate that Lebanon’s financial woes are symptoms of a much deeper and more entrenched problem. They are the result of decades of fragile social cohesion, alarming corruption and mismanagement, which have created fertile ground for Iranian takeover of land and political institutions. This means that the emerging ceasefire agreement should be an annex to another, broader agreement.

An agreement by which the axis of countries responsible for ensuring security in the south of Litania will commit to contributing to the rehabilitation of an entity which was once one of the pearls of the Middle East and which today resembles to its own shell.

The realization of such a plan could rely on the spirit of Security Council Resolution 1559, which called for respect for the independence and sovereignty of Lebanon and an end to the foreign presence and militias in the country.

In practice, such a rehabilitation process must neutralize Iran’s influence over Lebanon and the Iranian military, including an institutional refusal to misuse the Hariri land crossing and airport to smuggle Iranian soldiers and weapons. This will also be conditional on a clear Lebanese denunciation and demilitarization of Hezbollah as part of an effective monitoring process aimed at ensuring its inability to recover.

Besides security, he must have a strong financial base and lead a long-term economic plan based on strategic partnerships with allies who want to see Lebanon prosper, not control its assets. It could also insert accountability and sanctions mechanisms to prevent corrupt forces from once again taking advantage of Lebanese aid.

Most importantly, it must involve an honest realization that the future ceasefire agreement will not magically solve the problem, because social processes take years.

The current confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah could create the conditions for such a move. At the time of writing these lines, more than 160 commanders killed in Hezbollahincluding senior members of its management. This means that a significant obstacle that prevented Lebanon from applying its sovereignty over parts of its southern territory is gradually being removed.

But that’s just the starting point, not the end. While the current ceasefire agreement is being negotiated, its content must express an understanding of Lebanon’s complex situation as a country and apply strategic rehabilitation mechanisms accordingly.

Learning from past mistakes will not only prevent the next war with Israel. This will liberate Lebanon.

Gadi Ezra is the former Israeli director of the National Public Diplomacy Unit and the author of “11 Days in Gaza” (Yedioth Books, Hebrew). Sarit Zehavi is the founder and president of the Alma Research and Education Center, specializing in Israel’s security challenges on its northern borders..

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