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Here’s how third-party candidates could shape the Trump-Harris race, from Jill Stein to RFK Jr.

Umito November 5, 2024

Top line

Third-party candidates are on the ballot in crucial swing states, and with the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remaining a virtual tie, a few votes for smaller candidates could make the difference. difference.

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – AUGUST 23: Former Republican presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and … (+) Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump, shakes hands during a campaign rally at Desert Diamond Arena August 23, 2024 in Glendale, Arizona. Kennedy announced today that he is suspending his presidential campaign and supporting former President Trump. (Photo by Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)

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Key facts

Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (who suspended his campaign), Jill Stein of the Green Party, Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party and independent Cornel West retained places on the ballot in at least some of the seven states swing ready to decide the election.

Oliver is on the ballot in every swing state, Stein and West are on the ballot in most states, and Kennedy is on the ballot only in Michigan and Wisconsin, even though he attempted to withdraw his name after supporting Trump.

Third-party candidates will likely get only a tiny share of the vote, but in an election as close as this one, they could matter: minor candidates have garnered 3 to 4 percent of the vote in Economist/YouGov And Timetable/Siena polls last week, a vote share greater than the percentage point separating Trump and Harris, while a CNN/SSRS Poll of Michigan found that as many as 6 percent of voters supported minor candidates, with Harris holding a five-point lead.

Democrats are particularly concerned about third-party candidates: Stein and West are run to the left of Harris and are often seen as more likely to take voters away from her than Trump; the final Timetable/Siena An October national poll shows Trump leading 47% to 46% against Harris, with third parties included, but a tie (48%-48%) if people are forced to say which side they lean.

RFK Jr.’s role on the remaining battlefields is unclear: before dropping out, he was considered a responsibility for both campaigns, but polls show he could decrease no more Trump with his now persistent candidacy – for example, a Fox News poll released October 30 showed Harris leading Trump 48-46% in Michigan when voters are allowed to select Kennedy as an option (Kennedy holds 3%), but that figure drops to a 49-49% tie when voters cannot select Kennedy .

Which swing states have third-party candidates, and how are those candidates polled?

Arizona: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein has 2% of the vote and Oliver 1% a Times/Siena poll published on November 3. In the same poll, Trump has a four-point lead.
Michigan: Stein, Oliver, West and Kennedy are on the ballot. Kennedy has less than half a percentage point, Stein has 2%, West has less than 1% and Oliver has 1%. Timetable/Siena survey. In the same poll, Harris is tied with Trump (45% to 45%).
Wisconsin: Stein, Oliver, West and Kennedy are on the ballot. Kennedy has less than half a percentage point, Stein has 1%, West has less than half a percentage point and Oliver has less than 1% in the Timetable/Siena survey. In the same poll, Harris led Trump by three points.
Georgia: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein has less than 1% and Oliver has 2%, according to the Timetable/Siena survey. In the same poll, Harris is tied with Trump (46% to 46%).
Nevada: Oliver is on the ballot; he has 2% of the votes, according to the Timetable/Siena survey. In the same poll, Harris leads Trump by three points.
North Carolina: Stein, Oliver and West are on the ballot. Stein has less than 1% of the vote, West has less than half a percentage point and Oliver has less than 1% of the vote, according to the Timetable/Siena survey. In the same poll, Harris leads Trump by three points.
Pennsylvania: Stein and Oliver are on the ballot. Stein has about 1% of the vote and Oliver has less than 1% of the vote, according to the Times/Siena poll. In the same poll, Harris and Trump are tied, 47% to 47%.

Crucial quote

“This year, third parties appear to have very little leverage and will likely play a very limited role, but (in) an extremely close election, where a few thousand votes in three or four states could determine the outcome, a third party that Prints even within tenths of 1% could make a difference,” Bruce Schulman, a historian and professor at Boston University, told Forbes via email.

Key context

Third-party candidates have virtually no chance of winning elections, given the funding and popularity needed to impact the electoral and popular vote. Historically, no third-party candidate has won a presidential race – and their results often lag behind polls. Pew Research Center Remarks. Even so, many of these candidates have invested money, effort and even lawsuits to include on (or deleted de) the ballot. Candidates are often accused of playing spoilsport, a notion that third-party candidates generally deny, arguing that they offer voters an ideological option not afforded to them by any of the major parties. Alleged spoilers from past years include 2016 candidates Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who got 1% and 3% of the vote respectively. Some say Stein hurt Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign: Green Party candidate won tens of thousands of votes in Wisconsin, a number greater than the margin that won Trump the presidency. Frequent candidate Ralph Nader is also argued that it was a spoiler due to his 2000 campaign, where he gained a few percentage points in Florida, which George W. Bush narrowly won over Al Gore. The late billionaire Ross Perot ran for president in 1992 against Democrat Bill Clinton and Republican President George HW Bush. He landed about 18.9 percent of the popular vote, the closest third-party candidate to victory in American history, and was widely seen as undermining Bush.

What is a protest vote?

In such a hotly contested race, some voters view voting for a third party as a way to protest the election or express their displeasure with two major candidates.

To watch

Stein has become a top candidate for some Muslim and Arab American voters unhappy with President Joe Biden’s support for Israel in its invasion of Gaza. Its support is particularly strong in Michigan (home to a large Arab-American population), Arizona and Wisconsin, Reuters reportsciting a survey by an advocacy organization, the Council on American-Islamic Relations. In Michigan, 40% of Muslim voters said they would vote for Stein, compared to 18% for Trump and 12% for Harris, CAIR said.