LWorld leaders congratulated Donald J. Trump on 47^th President of the United States, and expressed their desire to work together for mutual benefit. However, geopolitical reality goes beyond rhetoric. Trump’s return to the White House will keep America’s allies, partners and adversaries on their toes, as they prepare to learn the lessons of his first term and prepare for the next four years of foreign policy American.

Chinese President Xi Jinping felicity Trump, urging the two countries to find the right way to get along in the new era, strengthen dialogue and communication, properly handle differences and expand mutually beneficial cooperation. Asked about Trump’s tariff threats, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson refused to answer the “hypothetical question”. Russian President Vladimir Putin also congratulated Trump: call the American president “courageous” in reference to the first assassination attempt against him during an election rally in Pennsylvania. Saying he is ready for dialogue with Trump, Putin commented“What was said about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion deserves at least special attention.”

Therefore, even though Beijing and Moscow were quick to congratulate Trump’s return to power, the strategic tussle with China and growing animosity towards Russia is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Like the Republican Party too won the majority In the US Senate, and closing in on control of the House of Representatives, Beijing and Moscow will closely monitor Trump’s early policy calls on the war in Ukraine, trade, Taiwan and technology.

However, is the Sino-Russian alliance ironclad in its challenge to the United States? In the former Cold War with the Soviet Union, a geopolitical division between the USSR and China led to the rapprochement between the United States and China in the early 1970s, altering the balance of Asian powers for decades future. Will history repeat itself? During his campaign speeches, Trump alluded to his desire to drive a wedge between Russia and China. Will Trump and his team have enough geostrategic foresight and bargaining chips to end the war in Ukraine, set new terms of engagement with Russia, and end the Xi-Putin bromance? This is far from the case, but if Trump pulls off this deal, it will radically alter European and Asian geopolitics.

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Western allies

The mixed reactions of European leaders were very clear at the summit of the European Political Community this week in Budapest. There was almost unanimity ask stronger European preparation in terms of defense and security, with lower expectations from Washington. Wwhile insisting that Trump will “defend American interests,” French President Emmanuel Macron asked whether Europeans were “willing to defend European interests.” There is also a creeping fear among European leaders that Trump’s election promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours could lead to concessions favorable to Russia and that Trump’s sweeping tariff measures could harm the EU economy.

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, by calling for the EU to maintain its unity, said she looked forward to working “in a good way” with President Trump to strengthen the “transatlantic bond”. One of the strongest reactions to Trump’s victory came from the French Minister Delegate for European Affairs, Benjamin Haddad. “We need to ask ourselves if we want to rely on the voters of Montana, Wisconsin and Michigan to keep Europe safe. Basically, the security of Europe would be a toss-up every four years.” he said.

Trump 2.0 clearly constitutes an inflection point in the Western alliance at a time of profound upheaval in global power dynamics. Trump’s threats to withdraw from NATO left a bad taste in transatlantic relations during his first term and continue to haunt European partners. The security of the NATO alliance can no longer be taken for granted.

Perceived threats from Russia in Europe have disrupted the regional security order, leading the latter towards a new defense posture. Moreover, most of Europe is more concerned with managing Chinese economic aggression than dealing with a security threat. Therefore, as the new Trump presidency prepares to reengage with Beijing and Moscow, EU and NATO partners in Europe will need to prepare for a fraught mix of long-term strategic trends affecting alliances transatlantic issues and the more immediate impact of Trump’s transactional policies. presidency. Ukraine teeters on the brink of uncertainty even as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy felicity Trump and hoped that his “commitment to peace through strength” could bring “a just peace to Ukraine.”

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Friends and foes in West Asia

The war between Israel and Hamas, which began more than a year ago, has clearly transformed into a regional crisis in West Asia, taking a more serious turn with the confrontation between Israel and Iran .

During his first term, Trump had drawn unilaterally the United States to an Obama-era multilateral deal with Iran, involving U.S. allies to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Since then, relations between the United States and Iran have deteriorated. further southand will likely become bitter during Trump’s second term. Trump calls Israel a “valuable ally” and during his campaign, claimedthat whatever happened in the region “would never have happened” under his leadership. “I will sort this out quickly,” he said.

» said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu while congratulating Trump that they had “agreed to work together for Israel’s security” and discussed “the Iranian threat.” On the other hand, an Iranian government spokesperson, comment that the U.S. presidential election “was irrelevant” to Iran, said the policies of the United States and Iran were “fixed and do not change with the change of individuals.” One of the highlights of Trump’s first term in West Asia was the negotiation of the Abraham Accords, which attempted to redraw the map of interstate relations in the region. But the past year has once again exposed the quagmire in which West Asia finds itself, raising questions about the limits of US strategic intervention and a broken regional balance that Trump will inherit from his predecessor, and in how far he can repair the disorder without disrupting his government. constant support for Israel.

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Indo-Pacific partners

For America’s Indo-Pacific partners, particularly the Quad countries, maintaining and nurturing their partnership with Washington remains critical to managing China’s assertive rise in the region. Trump has a positive record in this matter, as the Quad points out was relaunched during his first presidential term in 2017, and the U.S. Pacific Command was renamed as Indo-Pacific Command. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to congratulate Trump and said: “Looking forward to working closely again to further strengthen India-US relations in technology, defense, energy, space and several other sectors.” Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said“I very much look forward to working closely with you to further strengthen the Japan-US alliance and cooperate to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific.” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese radius broader security ties between the US and Australia and the AUKUS Group with the UK and US while speaking to Trump.

While two of the Quad partners, Japan and Australia, are allies of the United States and are bound by extremely strict security commitments, India remains an exception with its penchant for maintaining its strategic autonomy, despite growing defense ties with the United States. Additionally, India’s foreign policy strategy to manage ties with US adversaries, including China, Russia and Iran, will limit influence in New Delhi and Washington. Additionally, Trump’s extreme positions on tariff reciprocity across allies and adversaries, his disregard for multilateralism, and his radical demands for security commitments are trends that all stakeholders will need to address. compose over the next four years.

When it comes to bilateral trade and security relations as well as multilateral engagements on issues of global concern, the strategic trends that America’s friends and enemies will face are the result of a balance changing powers in the international system and how Washington reacts to these changes. . So they exist with or without Trump.

The world has already experienced the disruptive four years of Trump’s transactional presidency in the not-so-distant past. He will have to be ready to deal with the mix of the old and the new American president.

Monish Tourangbam is Director of the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies (KIIPS), India. Opinions are personal.

(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)