MONTREAL — Quebec’s Environment Ministry likely overestimated the number of properties located in flood zones following the modernization of flood mapping, according to officials who sought Friday to allay concerns about the new regulations.

In June, the ministry estimated that three times as many Quebecers would live in areas prone to flooding according to the updated mapping system. We already knew that approximately 22,000 residences in Quebec were located in flood zones, but according to the new maps, approximately 77,000 properties, or approximately 2% of the population, would be located in such zones.

However, on Friday morning, ministry officials clarified that these figures would likely be revised downward. Deputy Minister Jean Bissonnette explained that the regulatory impact analysis accompanying the new regulation should demonstrate that the actual number of properties in flood zones is much lower than that previously estimated.

He attributed the initial overestimation to urban communities misjudging the impact of the new maps when contacting the ministry earlier this year.

No final estimate was provided on exactly how many properties will fall into flood zones once the new maps are completed.

Property Value and Insurance Issues
Since the launch of a public consultation on the new flood mapping system six months ago, many elected officials have expressed concern about the impact these changes could have on property values.

Pointe-Calumet Mayor Sonia Fontaine, for example, expressed her concerns to The Canadian Press in June after reviewing preliminary maps, saying homeowners could wake up one morning and find that the value of their property is plummeting, with mortgage and insurance uncertainties.

More recently, the Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers of Quebec (APCIQ) issued a press release warning that owners in newly designated flood zones could face major obstacles when trying to sell their property. Although the risk of flooding is low, that perception alone could deter potential buyers, the association said.

In response to these concerns, Bissonnette attempted to downplay these fears. He cited a 2022 analysis from the Ouranos research group, which found that homes in flood-prone areas experience a temporary depreciation in value – ranging from 4% to 8% – and remain on the market between two and three weeks longer than other properties.

As for insurance, Bissonnette pointed out that home insurance policies do not automatically cover flood damage. This is why the Department of Public Safety offers flood compensation. However, he explained, homeowners can purchase additional coverage, called an endorsement, to protect against flood risks.

According to the Insurance Bureau of Canada, 90% of owners in Quebec have access to such endorsements, but only 60% have requested them.

Four risk categories for flood zones
The new flood maps will classify flood risks into four categories: low, moderate, high and very high. Each risk category will be represented by a different color. For example, properties with a ‘very high’ flood risk would have a greater than 70% chance of flooding at least once in 25 years, with water levels exceeding 60cm during a flood.

The risk categories will influence the rules for construction and renovation of properties located in these areas. For example, homeowners located in a “very high” risk area would not be allowed to build new homes or rebuild destroyed properties.

New regulation on flood protection infrastructure
The ministry is also considering revising certain aspects of the regulations regarding flood protection infrastructure (OPI), such as dikes or flood walls.

Under the government’s initial plan, areas behind these protective structures would automatically be classified as “high” or “very high” risk areas. However, the revised regulations suggest that municipalities should conduct a study of flood protection infrastructure before they can reassess the level of risk.

This part of the regulation has attracted criticism, notably from the Montreal Metropolitan Community (CMM), which argued that carrying out such studies could prove costly and time-consuming. Additionally, simply classifying an area as “high risk” could create uncertainty for residents and negatively impact property values.

The CMM suggested the ministry introduce a separate risk category for areas behind flood protection structures, to avoid unfairly classifying neighborhoods as high risk. Bissonnette indicates that this recommendation is currently being evaluated.

Next steps
Public consultations on the regulations concluded several weeks ago and the regulatory framework is expected to be adopted in spring 2025. There will be a transition period of approximately six months between adoption and implementation, which means that the new regulation could come into force in the fall of 2025. 2025.

In the meantime, municipalities must prepare new flood zone maps according to the ministry’s methodology and submit them for provincial approval. The Montreal Metropolitan Community has already published preliminary versions of its maps online.

–This report from The Canadian Press was translated by CityNews