CNN senior reporter Harry Enten analyzed the signs pointing to a potential victory for former President Trump next week.

Enten mentioned that the fraction of people satisfied with the current direction of the country, President Biden’s current approval numbers and high registration on the electoral lists The numbers among Republicans in swing states point to Trump’s re-election next week.

“If the Republicans win next week – if Donald Trump wins next week, the signs will have been obvious all along,” Enten told CNN anchor John Berman on Wednesday morning.

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On Tuesday, CNN senior reporter Harry Enten spoke of three “signs” pointing to a Trump victory next month. (Screenshot/CNN)

Enten began by explaining how Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning are much lower given that she is the incumbent president at a time when only 28 percent of Americans think the country is in a good position. on the right track.

He said that in the modern political era – since 1980 – the average rate of Americans who think the country is on the right track when the incumbent president loses is 25 percent. The average victory rate for the incumbent president is 42 percent.

Mentioning the 28 percent figure, he said, “That doesn’t look anything — nothing — like that 42 percent… So, at the end of the day, very few Americans think the country is on the right track to this particular stage. we follow the moment when the party in power loses much more than the moment when it wins. »

Enten then dismantled the second sign: historically, a party whose president has a low net approval rating is not replaced by a candidate from that same party.

“So, I went back and looked. Okay, was this successor the same party when the president’s net approval rating was negative at this point, which is certainly the case for Joe Biden? He is 15 points underwater.”

Enten pointed out how George W. Bush, who had a negative net approval rating in 2008, was replaced by Democratic President Barack Obama. The same setting corresponds to the end of the term of former President Lyndon B. Johnson, which was followed by that of Republican Richard Nixon. It was the same at the end of Harry Truman’s presidency in 1952.

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Former US President Donald Trump during a campaign event in Greensboro, North Carolina, USA, Tuesday, October 22, 2024. Photographer: Cornell Watson/Bloomberg via Getty Images (Cornell Watson)

“Harry S. Truman – his approval rating was in the 20s, even into the upper teens. Did a Democrat succeed Harry S. Truman in 1952? My memory – no,” he declared, adding that Republican Dwight Eisenhower had succeeded Truman.

He summed up the second sign pointing to Trump’s victory by saying, “So ultimately, for Kamala Harris to win, she would have to break history, be a Democrat to succeed Joe Biden while Trump’s approval rating Biden is well underwater at this point. “.

Enten’s third sign was that Republican voter registration was gaining popularity relative to Democratic voter registration in swing states. “So the Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate, the number of Democrats relative to the number of Republicans has gone down,” the reporter said.

He then concluded with a summary of the overall findings, saying: “We would consider the good leadership to be very weak, Joe Biden’s approval rating to be very low and the Republicans to actually be putting up numbers.” You can’t say you weren’t warned. “.

Enten’s assessment comes a day after he warned that the polls could be underestimating Harris’ performance. He argued Tuesday that polls conducted ahead of the 2022 midterm elections underestimated Democratic Party support by about four points, and said that could be happening now with Harris’ numbers, which show that She’s essentially tied with Trump.

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