(NewsNation) — President-elect Donald Trump plans to impose radical customs tariffs in his second term, but keeping that promise could come at a high cost for ordinary Americans.

“If we were to see the full array of tariffs proposed by candidate Trump, we would see a substantial increase in the price of almost everything we buy every day,” said Scott Lincicomevice president of general economics and commerce at the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute.

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Trump has not been shy about expressing his love for tariffs – which are a tax on goods imported from other countries – call them “the greatest thing ever invented” during the election campaign.

But economists warn these taxes, which are almost always paid by the importer, are largely passed on to consumers.

As a candidate, Trump proposed a 60% tariff on goods from China as well as a “universal” 10-20% tariff on all imports, arguing that his plan would reduce the trade deficit and would protect American jobs.

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The president-elect also threatened a 25% tariff on Mexicothe United States’ largest trading partner, if the country does not do more to stop what he described as an “onslaught of criminals and drugs” entering the United States.

If that happens, shoppers can expect to pay more at the grocery store, especially for items such as fresh produce, much of which is imported from abroad, Lincicome pointed out.

The Tax Foundation – a non-partisan tax policy nonprofit – recently look at a dozen estimates analyzing Trump’s proposed tariffs, and each study consistently found that his proposals would have a negative impact on the U.S. economy.

Other commentators are less concerned, arguing that Trump’s tariff threats are just a negotiating tactic to gain leverage.

“He talked about using them as a negotiating tool to stop China from stealing our technology, to get China to allow our goods and services into China…we need to put more pressure on China to accepts American goods and services. what they are not doing now,” Grover Norquist, Republican founder and president of Americans for Tax Reformsaid “NewsNation Prime» this month.

During a recent NewsNation town hallCurrent Vice President-elect JD Vance defended his running mate’s tariff policies, pointing out that inflation was low during Trump’s first term despite aggressive tariffs.

How would tariffs be different in a second Trump term?

Trump’s new tariffs are expected to have far greater consequences than previous ones due to the sheer scale of the proposals.

“As we are talking about a wider range of products and a higher level of tariffs and consumer goods, the direct price pain this time would be more obvious and greater,” he said. declared Lincicoma.

Products such as smartphones and laptops, which were not subject to previous tariffs, could be particularly affected. Under Trump’s proposed tariffs, consumers could see laptop and tablet prices increase by 46%, and smartphone prices by 26%. according to a report from the Consumer Technology Association.

Customs duties of 60% on Chinese products alone would represent almost triple the current customs duties on imports from China, according to economist Pierre Lemieux. noted in a report.

“Trump claims tariffs would boost the economy and working-class families. In fact, they would hit the American economy and low-income families hard,” Lemieux wrote.

Retaliation is also a concern.

China and Mexico would likely respond by imposing tariffs of their own, which could hurt U.S. exports.

“What we saw in Trump’s first term was numerous tariffs imposed, and almost no governments backed down in response to those tariffs,” Lincicome said.

The government of Mexico has already reported it could retaliate by imposing its own trade restrictions – a move that would have serious consequences for American farmers, chemical manufacturers and other sectors.

In total, U.S. exports to Mexico were worth $362 billion in 2022 and accounted for nearly 16% of all U.S. exports that year, according to the most recent figures from the Office of the United States Trade Representative.

How much could Trump’s tariffs raise prices?

A analysis The nonpartisan Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that Trump’s proposed tariffs would cost a typical American household more than $2,600 a year.

“High tariffs also imply a massive shift in the tax burden from wealthier taxpayers to lower-income Americans,” the report said.

A separate estimate from Yale’s Budget Lab estimates Trump’s tariffs could increase consumer prices by 1.4% to 5.1%. This equates to $1,900 to $7,600 per household.

Rising prices would likely show up at the grocery store. Indeed, much of the food consumed in the United States – about 60% of fresh fruits and 38% of vegetables – is imported. according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture.

Consumer products like clothing, toys, furniture and shoes are also expected to become more expensive with the new tariffs, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). said earlier this month. The NRF warned that the proposed tariffs would have a “significant” and “detrimental” impact on a wide range of products and reduce Americans’ purchasing power by $46 billion to $78 billion each year.

A $90 pair of sneakers is expected to rise to between $106 and $116, the NRF estimates. Meanwhile, an $80 pair of men’s jeans would cost between $90 and $96.

Also worth mentioning: Trump’s first-term tariffs didn’t skyrocket prices across the board, but they came at a cost. After taking into account direct costs and efficiency losses, economists estimate the tariffs increased costs for average American households by about $830 per year.

For example, Trump imposed tariffs on imports of washing machines in 2018. Researchers estimate the price of washing machines has increased by about 12%, or about $86 per unit.

Do customs tariffs protect jobs?

One of Trump’s main arguments for tariffs is that they prevent American companies from offshoring jobs, but it’s not that simple.

Workers who produce the specific goods covered by the tariffs often benefitbut tariffs can also harm workers in other sectors that rely on these imports.

“You can protect the steel industry with tariffs, but higher steel prices are going to hurt manufacturers who need steel in the United States and are going to hurt all of those workers,” Lincicome said.

In other words, a government tariff may have the effect of trading jobs in one sector for jobs in another.

Returning to the washing machine example, the researchers determined that the policy created about 1,800 new jobs, but at a high cost of up to $817,000 per job.

The Tax Foundation estimates Trump’s proposed tariffs would reduce total employment by 684,000 jobs — an estimate that does not include the effects of retaliation.

A paper 2024 by a group of top economists examined Trump’s 2018 tariffs and found that “import duties on foreign products neither increased nor decreased U.S. employment in newly protected.” However, the retaliatory tariff measures have had “obvious negative impacts”, mainly in agriculture.

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