• Elon Musk went all out to support the former president Donald Trump for his re-election.
• Musk could gain influence at the federal level if Trump is elected president.
• It’s unclear what a Harris administration would mean for Musk and his business empire.

The stakes are high for Elon Musk and his business empire during this election period.

Since the announcement his support for former President Donald Trump in Julythe billionaire has regularly used X to express support for the Republican Party and has taken the stage alongside Trump at at least two rallies.

He hosted his own series of political shows “talks” And invested more than 130 million dollars in pro-Trump efforts this year. He also engages in a daily Million-dollar gift to registered voters in swing states who signed his petition in favor of freedom of expression and the right to bear arms.

Musk’s actions beg the question: What does the billionaire stand to gain from a Trump presidency?

Potentially, a lot.

Musk under Trump

Many of Musk’s businesses rely heavily on federal approvals, regulations, grants or contracts – and Trump has promised a lighter regulatory environment with plans to cut corporate and personal taxes.

If Trump wins the presidency, Francesco Trebbi, a professor of business and public policy at the University of California, Berkeley, told Business Insider that Musk could benefit from “installing key personnel within the public administration” . That could secure him valuable relationships that extend beyond the next four years, he said.

Trump has already incorporated some of Musk’s policy proposals into his campaign, intending to establish a government efficiency commission led by Musk. Trump said the commission would conduct a “comprehensive financial and performance audit of the entire federal government” and suggest “drastic reforms.”

Musk proposed to lay off a number of federal workers at a Pennsylvania town hall on October 18.

“Why the hell do you need 428 agencies,” Musk recently said said at a rally in Pittsburgh. “Like why do you need 100?” »

Erik Gordon, regional director of entrepreneurial studies at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, said a Trump presidency could also lead to less oversight from regulators. This could give Musk “more freedom to develop advanced technologies – one of his favorite things to do,” Gordon said.

Tesla finds itself at a pivotal moment, with investors eyeing Musk’s pledge to win approval for fully autonomous vehicles in Texas and California. However, ongoing investigations into Tesla’s self-driving technology by government agencies, including the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, could set back the company’s autonomous plans.

During a recent earnings callMusk suggested that if there was a government commission on efficiency, he would help move the approval process forward state-by-state with a “federal approval process for autonomous vehicles.”

For SpaceX, Trebbi said a Trump presidency could help the company win big contracts with the Department of Defense. This could help it maintain its advantage against rivals like Blue Origin.

Musk under Harris

Although Musk could gain power, government contracts and looser regulations under Trump, it’s unclear how he might be impacted under a Harris administration.

A key policy on the minds of many business leaders is Harris’ proposed tax plan. It aims to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% – a move that Bank of America says could reduce revenue by 5%. This, combined with the possibility of stricter regulation, could impact a number of companies, including Elon Musk’s.

Gordon said Harris could introduce new safety rules or pass tax credits for electric or commercial vehicles that would favor competitors.

For X, which Musk has touted as the platform for free speech, Gordon said a Harris administration could pressure him to ban material labeled “disinformation.” However, Gordon said X would most likely win in court under the First Amendment.

Tevi Troysenior fellow at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said it was unlikely — and most likely illegal — that Harris would send orders to target Musk. However, it’s possible that Musk could face “selective enforcement,” said Troy, who is also a former White House senior adviser.

“One would hope that government units would be insulated from political pressure,” Joan MacLeod Heminway, a law professor at the University of Tennessee, told BI. “But members of these units are humans and may inadvertently review proposals from entities owned or controlled by Elon Musk.”

It’s also possible that nothing will change significantly for Musk under a Harris administration.

“We have no strong indication that Harris wants to significantly increase regulatory burdens,” Cary Coglianese, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania and director of the Penn Program on Regulation, told Business Insider.

Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said a Democratic administration might be better for Musk because Harris supports the Mexico Inflation Reduction and Production Act, which Trump has spoken out against.

The IRA provides substantial benefits to Musk, including a $7,500 tax credit for new electric vehicles, which helps Tesla. It also offers tax credits for solar installations.

Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary for the Trump campaign, told BI that if elected, President Trump will support the auto industry, “making room for gasoline cars AND electric vehicles.” However, he plans to end the Green New Deal and cancel unspent funds from the Inflation Reduction Act in an effort to “quickly defeat inflation and bring down all prices”, » said Leavitt.

Musk plays a risky game

Since Musk said he has supported Democrats in the past, Trebbi said he might align with Trump to gain government support.

“I view Musk’s realignment with the Republican Party as a risk-hedging strategy, designed to preempt government regulation/maintain government support, regardless of who wins in November,” Trebbi said.

Coglianese also said it’s possible that Musk sees himself as the one who can “take down the federal government,” much like his approach to acquire Twitter.

“It’s also entirely conceivable that he simply sees himself as someone who can be a savior,” Coglianese said.

Coglianese said the strategy of aligning with Trump is risky, however.

“He’s counting on a president who will be willing or ready to reward Musk for his loyalty,” Coglianese said, adding that it’s not always clear that even his staunchest supporters get everything they want.

Carl Icahn got some relief from the EPA while advising Trump during his first term, but his tenure ended in controversy, Coglianese said. THE Billionaire investor resigned from unpaid role amid criticism of potential conflicts of interest.

Other cases ended more favorably. Trump previously said that Tim Cook was the only CEO to call him directly if he had a problem. Apple CEO got iPhone tariff exemption with the former president.

“There are ethical rules requiring compliance with various types of obligations, including reporting conflicts of interest, for certain types of government positions,” Heminway said. “Elon Musk may not want to take on these obligations.”