SEC football gets underway between two rivals after losses they would rather forget, as No. 22 LSU travels to Florida. Here’s what you need to watch out for in the match, with our updated predictions for the match.

LSU almost certainly fell out of the College Football Playoff, or more accurately was kicked out of it, after an ugly home loss to rival Alabama last weekend, and needs to win, including the bowl, to finish with 10 wins.

Florida was defeated at Texas last week in a 49-17 decision that saw third-string quarterback Aidan Warner lead the offense and need two wins in his final three games to become bowl eligible. , but all five of the Gators’ losses have come to top-25 ranked teams in the CFP.

What can we expect as the Tigers and Gators meet in this SEC rivalry game?

Here’s what you need to watch as LSU and Florida get to know each other in this Week 12 college football matchup, along with our updated prediction for the matchup.

1. Is LSU really out of the picture? This loss to Alabama certainly gave LSU’s playoff chances a black eye, but mathematically speaking, there’s still a path to the SEC title game. You may need a calculator to get it right, but it’s there.

LSU of course needs to win, and also needs Alabama and Tennessee to lose at least one more time each, then could sneak in based on a conference winning percentage tiebreaker. It’s a long shot, sure, but LSU’s season isn’t exactly over.

2. The return of Lagway. Gators quarterback DJ Lagway appears on track to make his return this week after missing last week’s game with a leg injury he suffered against Georgia. After initially being listed as questionable, Lagway was removed from UF’s injury report late in the week.

Lagway appeared in 8 games this season, completing 61 percent of his passes for 1,071 yards with 6 touchdowns and 5 picks, and in his only full SEC appearance, Florida scored a season-high 48 points while posting 259 passing yards and 46 more. rushing.

Having him on the field gives the Gators a notable advantage behind the center who, despite his inexperience, has proven capable of hitting deeper passes and moving with his legs and faces an LSU defense that has been vulnerable against both .

3. Bearing problem. LSU’s offense relies heavily on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who leads an offense that ranks 5th in the FBS by throwing the ball more than 61 percent of the time, including on 42 of the team’s 66 offensive plays in of the defeat in Alabama.

And while he’s second in the SEC in passing yards and touchdowns this season, he also has 11 interceptions, the second most in the conference, including 6 giveaways in the last 6 quarters, with 3 picks against the Aggies and 2 others with a fumble. against the tide.

Most computer football prediction models are siding with the Tigers over the Gators this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select winners.

LSU comes out on top in a slight majority of 57.5 percent of computer game simulations.

The remaining 42.5 percent of simulations see Florida winning in an upset.

How does this translate into an expected margin of victory? Expect a close match.

LSU should be just 2.7 points better than Florida on the same field, according to the model’s latest predictions. In summary, let’s call this a seeding game for the Tigers.

More… LSU vs. Florida Prediction: What the Analytics Say

LSU is a 3.5-point favorite against Florida, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel pegged the total at 55.5 points for the match (Over -115, Under -105).

And it lists the money odds for LSU at -170 and Florida at +140 to win outright.

Lagway’s presence on the field keeps things interesting for the Gators. He’s no Jalen Milroe, but his combination of reliable enough mid-range accuracy and mobility in the pocket presents a credible challenge to LSU’s maligned secondary and front seven, respectively.

Yet the Gators have managed 8 giveaways in the last 4 games and aren’t really playing a consistent enough offense to match what Nussmeier can still do, despite his own recent struggles.

Florida is 90th nationally against the pass and 95th against the run, which should give LSU reliable throwing lanes to exploit and even build on its so-far limited rushing ability.

College football HQ chooses…

More… LSU vs. Florida Score Prediction by Expert Football Model

When: Saturday November 16
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Television: ABC network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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