Marc Wiedmer

Ah, isn’t this the day we’ve all been waiting for for months, even years? November 5. The big reveal. Relax in your living room tonight, order a pizza, and wait for, uh, the first 12-team bracket of the College Football Playoff.

Did you think something more important was being decided tonight? At least here in the South, what’s more important than learning if Alabama could be out of the playoffs? Will Tennessee have to beat Georgia in Athens in a few weeks to get in? What about Ohio State? Penn State? Texas A&M?

ARMY?

At 7 p.m., the answers to these and other questions will be revealed before the official 12-team lineup is announced at noon on Sunday, December 12.

8. Do I expect Tennessee to be called tonight? Yes. Do I expect the Vols to make the playoffs on December 8? Again, yes. Do I expect Bama to be there? It depends if they can win at LSU on Saturday night and at Oklahoma in two weeks.

Call me harsh, but when five schools – Oregon, Miami, Indiana, BYU and Army – are still undefeated and 11 other schools in the Top 25 have just one loss and Bama has none of those 11 on With his schedule remaining to fill out his resume, it would appear the Tide can ill afford another loss the rest of the way. And Saturday’s opponent, LSU, is in the same boat, although at least the Bayou Bengals are playing in the friendly (for them) confines of Tiger Stadium.

So who should be called tonight? Number 1 in Oregon is a lock. The same goes for undefeated Miami and Indiana, at least for now. After that, expect Ohio State and Georgia to be called, as well as Tennessee and Notre Dame. That’s seven out of 12. Add in Texas and BYU and we’re at three. Again, for now, let’s put SMU and Army. So, drum roll please, No. 12 will be Boise State.

These are definitely NOT the dozen dynamites that will make it into the final installment. Boise State and SMU, for example, probably can’t take any more losses and get on the field. And what about Georgia or Tennessee. If the Bulldogs were upset by dangerous Ole Miss this weekend, they would have to beat Tennessee in Athens to get on the field. And just for fun, let Tennessee lose to Georgia and plucky Vanderbilt and the Vols could disappear from the tournament.

But what if Tennessee beats Georgia and Vandy? Wouldn’t that be a top four seed? Wouldn’t he suddenly be favored to win it all now that his defense is at least as strong as Josh Heupel’s offense?

If I pick the top four teams at this point, I’m going with Oregon, Ohio State, Miami and Georgia, with Ohio State getting revenge on Oregon in the national title game if they find themselves in opposite brackets.

But it could just as easily be Miami and Georgia if the Bulldogs’ offense solves their recent turnover problem.

Next, at least to see who will make the playoffs, let’s focus on the heartwarming story of the year: the Black Knights of Army. Logic dictates that their Cinderella story ends on November 23 at 7 p.m. at Yankee Stadium when they face a heavily favored Notre Dame team.

What if the army won? Now the selection committee would be faced with a giant-sized mess. For what? Because the Black Knights’ game against rival Navy won’t take place until December 14, the weekend after the final bracket is announced. An undefeated Army team would seem a guarantee for the playoffs. But an Army team with a marquee win (Notre Dame) and a loss to Navy wouldn’t seem to qualify. Do you put a 13th team on hold, in a choice scenario, while waiting for the Army-Navy outcome? Do you just put the army in place and pray that it brings down the challenger?

Even a 12-team playoff could see some unforeseen drama.

And you thought choosing a president was difficult.

(Email Mark Wiedmer at [email protected])