NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) – Hurricane Rafael strengthened into a major Category 3 hurricane as it approaches Cuba Wednesday afternoon.

The latest advisory for Rafael found sustained winds of 115 miles per hour as the storm moves northwest at 14 miles per hour.

As Rafael moves across the island, parts of western Cuba are expected to experience life-threatening storm surge, destructive hurricane-force winds and flash flooding.

Hurricane warnings are in place for western Cuba and tropical storm warnings extend to central Cuba and the Florida Keys.

The hurricane is expected to maintain its major status through Thursday morning as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Rafael is then expected to remain a hurricane until the weekend, when it may slow and weaken in the central or western Gulf.

The National Hurricane Center downgrades Rafael’s intensity to a tropical storm with a much wider cone until early next week.

Southeast Louisiana is no longer included in the forecast path as model guidance changes.

There is large model uncertainty in long-term forecasts as steering currents in the upper levels and environmental conditions weaken.

High pressure over the eastern United States that drives the system westward will weaken as an upper-level low pressure system moving across the Plains passes northward, leaving Rafael with little things to direct it.

It is possible that the storm will attempt to track north with the low pressure for the second half of the weekend which we will monitor as the pattern evolves.

The model trend is more towards a stagnant storm that could meander into the Bay of Campeche and potentially dissipate.

A more westerly trajectory toward the southwest of the Gulf could allow Rafael to maintain its strength for longer.

We will continue to monitor the system throughout this week. Check in regularly to the forecast for updates.

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