CNN Political Director David Chalian broke down the network’s latest swing state polls in a chat with the anchor Dana Bash THURSDAY. Chalian sounded the alarm for Harris in North Carolina while examining her margin over Trump with Black voters compared to Biden’s margin in the state in 2020.

“This is a one-point race in each in Georgia among likely voters. Our brand new survey shows Trump at 48%, supports Harris at 47%. It’s around the world in North Carolina. Harris has 48% support among likely voters. Trump with 47% support – one point race,” Chalian began, as Bash noted, “No clear leader. »

“No clear leader. This is essentially a tie. Yes, it’s a random election. Let’s enter Georgia first. As for some of the coalition groups here, they are independent voters. And again, I would just say that we’re comparing likely voters in a poll to what actually happened with voters in the 2020 exit polls. They’re two different, but informative universes among voters independent of our survey,” continued Chalian, adding:

Trump has a seven-point lead in Georgia. In Georgia in 2020, Biden won independent voters by nine points. So this is a potential warning sign for Harris. Black voters in Georgia, In our poll, Harris has a 71% advantage over Trump. That’s about where Biden was.

He was 77 points in the exit polls in terms of advantage over Asset. White non-college voters down in Georgia. Trump has a 66 percentage point advantage in our poll. This is its basis. We should expect this advantage to be even larger than his advantage in Georgia in the exit polls, but within this range.

In North Carolina. Let’s look at these same groups here among independent voters. Harris is four points ahead of Trump in our poll. That’s where Biden was with independent voters in the exit polls in 2020. That’s right. Remember, he lost North Carolina in 2020 by a slim margin. Black voters, 59 percentage point advantage.

This is a huge potential warning sign. In exit poll results, Biden won the Black vote in North Carolina by 85 percentage points. Harris This is something she will want to watch for in the final days. And then you see non-college white people here. This may be a slight decrease in support among Trump’s base compared to four years ago. Also in North Carolina, during the race for governor, you all remember the story of Marc RobinsonOf course. His support collapsed. It is at 37%. Josh Stein will likely be the next governor, a Democrat from North Carolina. And some Democrats say having this race removed from the map hurt them, keeping all North Carolina Democrats enthused.

“Yeah, which is a little counterintuitive, you think, but you know who’s up for grabs? » » asked Bash.

“Well, take a look at this. So 95% in both states, decisions are made. Obviously, there is this small universe. But we just heard our Ebony Davis ask Vice President Harris, as you played the sound before, what is your argument to these final mobile voters? And his answer was immediately about the economy and falling prices,” Chalian responded, adding:

And then, Dana, let’s look at those voters who tell us that they’ve already voted. So, among those in these states that tell us they have already voted in Georgia, that represents 59% of those surveyed in our survey. Harris wins them 51% to 44%. In North Carolina, 52% of people surveyed tell us they have already voted. So, again, a majority and Harris wins them here, 51% to 45%. I will just note that they are closer to those who tell us they already voted for Harris than what we see in these blue wall states where she had more advantages over those who tell us they already voted for Harris. vote.

Watch above via CNN.

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