Democrats have plenty of reasons to be optimistic as Election Day approaches. Seventy-seven percent of Democratic voters say they are excited to go to the polls to vote for Kamala Harris-a huge step forward 55% in March, when Joe Biden was still at the top of the ranking, and 50% in 2016When Hillary Clinton ran against Donald Trump. There are positive signs in hotly contested Pennsylvania, where new Democratic women – a group defined by the fact that they did not vote in the 2020 election – appear to have made up a decent share of the population. early voting.

It’s no surprise that the data looks rosy right now for Harris: his volunteer army, led since 353 field offices nationally, is clearly galvanized in such a way that, let’s say, Elon Muskis undercompensated, operated and directed by the U-haul volunteers are not. It also presents a vision focused on real needs of voters, while Trump offered his fundamentally strange (though distinctly darker and slightly dumber) mix of racism, misogynyand grievance.

Even though the polls have been extremely close for months, pollsters and experts may still be underestimating what could be the most important factor in 2024: the loss of Deer was an earthquake for women, especially those who were alive before 1973 and who saw the right to bodily autonomy granted to them but taken away from their daughters and granddaughters. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito could have avoided the potential damage of the rollover, arguing that “Women are not without electoral or political power,” but voters viewed her dismissal as a challenge, as evidenced by the midterms 2022 And 2023 elections. They are already in advance their male counterparts by a significant margin in early voting. And if my theory proves correct Tuesday night, it will mark another example of women — and especially older women — being overlooked and ignored.

Consider the latest findings of Anne Selzer, the prominent Iowa pollster who has correctly predicted the state’s winner in every presidential election since 2008. Last weekend, she released its latest pre-election poll, showing Harris leading Trump in the right-wing state, 47% to 44%. The data stunned experts who never imagined the vice president had a chance in any state. Joe Biden lost by eight points. But Selzer understood something they hadn’t: the post-Deer electoral bloc.

Trump led Biden by 18 points in an Iowa poll in June, but by September, Trump’s lead had fallen to 4 points. Two significant events occurred between the elections: one was the emergence of Harris, whose rollout went smoothly and raised over $1 billion, while the other significant event was the six-week ban on abortion in Iowa. taking effect end of July. Abortion bans don’t just affect abortion; they affect standard prenatal care, IVFAnd the number of physicians who perform obstetrics and gynecology services in a state.

Another factor that pundits and pollsters probably don’t fully consider is Harris’ bipartisan appeal. Many liberals disliked Harris campaigning and holding town halls with Republicans. Liz Cheney. But there is a very real chance that older women — even older Republicans — will cross party lines through such efforts. Harris created a permission structure for GOP dissent, signaling to voters that Trump was not a normal Republican and that they could vote for a Democratic candidate they would not normally support. Harris’s inroads with Republican women were only made possible by the fact that she East a very strong candidate – a leader who can stick to a firm policy thesis without alienating those who don’t fully agree. She made her final argument about pragmatism and compromise, a message that appeals to more centrist voters.

We don’t know what’s going to happen in the next 24 to 48 hours, but I think we’re going to look back on this election cycle and see that once again, a woman of color was largely underestimated. We will also reflect on this race as one in which women voters were underestimated. Harris was magnificent; it has become an oratorical style of its own. I think Harris replicated similar magic to Barack Obamacoalition of 2008. But his coalition is increasingly broad because it includes Republican women, who know that they risk losing even more of their rights if they vote behind Trump.