Donald Trump’s victory has left Mexico bracing for possible trade tensions, tariffs and mass expulsions of migrants that experts say could pose a major test for relations between the close-knit neighbors.
On the eve of the election, Trump pledged to impose tariffs of at least 25% on goods from Mexico unless he stopped “the onslaught of criminals and drugs.”
The Latin American nation “needs to take seriously what Trump is saying” given his past actions such as building a border fence, said Pamela Starr, an expert on U.S.-Mexico relations at the University of Southern California.
At the same time, “Trump likes to negotiate from a position of strength, which means he tends to use coercive rhetoric to present an extreme position from which he can negotiate down,” she explained to the AFP.
Trump’s victory sent the Mexican peso to a two-year low against the dollar, as markets braced for increased trade frictions.
Gabriela Siller, head of economic analysis at the financial group Banco BASE, called the 25% customs duties a “significant threat”.
“They would affect exports, formal job creation, foreign direct investment and economic growth,” which would likely lead to a downgrade of Mexico’s sovereign rating, she said.
President Claudia Sheinbaum reassured Mexicans that Trump’s victory was “not a cause for concern.”
Mexico and the United States have “very significant economic integration that benefits both countries. It’s a strength of both. We are not in competition with each other, but on the contrary, we complement each other,” she said.
Experts say Trump’s promise to carry out the largest mass expulsion of migrants in American history will pose one of the biggest tests for relations with Mexico.
Trump “will absolutely try to deport as many undocumented migrants to the United States as possible, and that’s going to create a real challenge in the U.S.-Mexico relationship,” Starr said.
The same day the Americans voted, hundreds of migrants from southern Mexico set off on foot in a caravan towards the American border.
Venezuela’s Heyson Diaz urged Trump to offer migrants an immigration process “to be able to legally enter the United States.”
This is not the first time Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs unless Mexico does more to curb migration flows – he did the same during his last presidency.
“And he got exactly the response he was hoping for from Mexico,” which sent a high-level team to Washington to negotiate a deal, said Duncan Wood, president of the Pacific Council on International Policy, a American non-profit organization.
“These are credible threats. And Trump is not a free trader. This time, the people around him are not free trade supporters. I think there is every reason to believe that he would use that kind of threat to get Mexico to do exactly what he wants,” he said.
Trade relations risked “getting very complicated,” according to Wood, a longtime Mexico watcher who has not ruled out Trump seeking to renegotiate a regional free trade deal to get better terms.
This uncertainty would pose a major obstacle to Mexico’s efforts to attract U.S. factories to Asia – a trend known as “near-shoring.”
The free trade agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada – which Trump managed to revamp during his last presidency – is expected to be revised in 2026.
“A Republican victory could imply a more aggressive negotiating style, generating more uncertainties that could spill over into the exchange rate and inflation in particular,” said Ramse Gutierrez, vice president at investment firm Franklin Templeton in Mexico.
However, when it comes to combating drug trafficking, tough talk about bombing Mexican cartels or sending troops across the border is unlikely to come to fruition, Wood said .
“Launching missile strikes on Mexico is not what the U.S. military wants to do,” he said.
“And any action on the ground in Mexico simply would not work,” he added.
On a personal level, relations between Washington and Mexico are also expected to be more tense than they would have been if Democrat Kamala Harris had won.
“The problem is that Sheinbaum is not only a woman, but she is also a strong and intelligent woman. And those are not the kind of women Donald Trump feels comfortable with,” Starr said.
“I think he’s going to challenge her, push her and corner her. But she’s tough, and I suspect she’ll fight back just as hard and he’ll realize he ultimately has to come to some sort of agreement with her,” she said. -AFP