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    • Hurricane Center Invest 97L Update, Trajectory and Spaghetti Models
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    Hurricane Center Invest 97L Update, Trajectory and Spaghetti Models

    Umito Posted on

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    A Hurricane Hunter plane was expected to be dispatched to the western Caribbean on Sunday, forecasters said in their Tropical Weather Outlook issued early in the morning. data on Invest 97Lwho has been monitored for days.

    National Hurricane Center forecasters estimate that a storm is very likely to form in the next 48 hours.

    NHC forecasters say there is a 90% chance Invest 97L will develop over the next two days over the southwest Caribbean Sea. A system further east, near Puerto Rico, is moving eastward and could cause thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles before being absorbed by Invest 97L.

    AccuWeather forecasters said Sunday that a a tropical storm is likely to be developed by Monday.

    On Sunday, Subtropical Storm Patty was moving quickly eastward toward the Azores, which is not under the tropical storm warning. The center of Patty is expected to move near the southeastern Azores today.

    There is no threat today of landing on the American continent and Hurricane strikes in November remain rare.

    “The most reliable indications suggest that the western flank of this high pressure will still extend over the Gulf, maintaining a potential storm moving west or northwest into the southwest Gulf of Mexico,” he said. said Ryan Truchalat, forecaster-owner of Weathertiger, which provides reporting for the USA TODAY Network.

    “A minority of model ensemble members have a faster and stronger frontal passage, in which case a storm theoretically near the Yucatan or Cuba could then turn northeast toward Florida late next week or the following weekend.”

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    The next named storms are Rafael and Sara.

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    Here are the details of what exists as of 5 a.m. on November 3:

    Where is Subtropical Storm Patty located? Is a hurricane heading towards Florida?

    Location: 37.3N, 22.3W approximately 280 miles east-southeast of Lajes Air Base, Azores

    Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph

    Current movement: East at 17 mph

    Minimum central pressure: 990 MB

    The center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.3 north and longitude 22.3 west.

    The storm is moving eastward at near 17 mph and east to east-northeast movement is expected over the next few days.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected over the next few days and Patty is expected to become a post-tropical low by Monday morning.

    Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb.

    Risks affecting the land:

    PRECIPITATION: Patty is expected to produce additional precipitation amounts of 1 to 2 inches over the Azores through early Monday.

    SURF: The swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores until tonight. These swells have the potential to cause life-threatening wave and rip current conditions.

    Tropical development conditions near Florida. Will Invest 97L become Tropical Storm Rafael?

    The waters of the Caribbean are warm enough for tropical developmenteven this late in the season. But it’s the wind shear, or disruptive breezes, that forecasters say they’re watching to determine what happens next. AccuWeather is calling for a tropical storm to form by Monday evening.

    “The brewing tropical storm is expected to turn northeastward over Jamaica and Cuba next week, bringing heavy showers and gusty winds to those islands. It is possible that it will become into a hurricane in the Caribbean before reaching Jamaica or Cuba, “said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert.

    Several options are proposed regarding the trajectory of the developing tropical storm.

    “The future trajectory will depend on the movement of a weakening jet stream more than 1,000 miles over the United States next week,” said AccuWeather chief meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

    “If this jet stream extends far enough east, it will tend to pick up the tropical feature and possibly carry it across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into southern Florida,” explained Rayno. “But if the jet stream descends westward, the tropical feature could enter the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas as far west as Louisiana or Texas. It is also possible that it continues westward and decreases over southern Mexico.

    The status of Invest 97L Caribbean

    Invest 97L in the southwest Caribbean Sea:

    Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a low pressure system over the south-central Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to become a tropical depression over the next two days as it moves generally northward toward Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

    Interests in these locations should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings may be required later today or this evening. Regardless of development, local heavy rain is possible over Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba over the next few days.

    An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently studying this system.

    • Chance of training in 48 hours: high, 90 percent.
    • Chance of training over 7 days: high, 90 percent.

    What else is there and how likely are they to strengthen each other?

    Near the southeastern Bahamas: A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds over the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent waters.

    Slow development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves westward toward Cuba and the Bahamas. This system is expected to be absorbed by the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by Monday evening, ending its chances of development.

    Regardless of the formation, local heavy rain is possible over the next few days over the Greater Antilles and Bahamas.

    • Chance of training in 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
    • Chance of training over 7 days: low, 10 percent.

    Who is likely to be impacted?

    Forecasters say 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected to fall across Jamaica, northward to Cuba. Heavier rain, 4 to 8 inches, may occur near the storm’s track over western Cuba and central Jamaica, with an AccuWeather height of 14 inches over the highest terrain.

    “These rains can cause flash floods, landslides and make travel difficult in parts of Jamaica and Cuba,” Reppert said.

    As the tropical storm moves north and gains strength, wind gusts will increase, with gusts of 40 to 60 mph expected.

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    When is hurricane season in the Atlantic?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

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    What’s next?

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    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

    Umito
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