In 2021, Bryn Rosenfeld published the book “The Autocratic Middle Class: How Dependence on the State Reduces the Demand for Democracy” in Eastern European countries. Despite the reputation of the middle class as champions of democracy, Bryn Rosenfeld argued that in these countries the middle class itself favored autocracy, citing a mutually beneficial arrangement between certain social classes.

A comparable pattern has emerged in Bangladesh over the past 15 years, where some middle-class individuals have supported the Hasina regime, allowing it to assume autocratic leadership and maintain it for a prolonged period. At the same time, I will argue that the regime fell because of massive student protests, during which all political parties failed to achieve their goals.

Middle class and democracy

The middle class can be defined using production, income and consumption models. This includes individuals in the middle income distribution, managers, professionals, or small business owners whose primary source of wealth is property.

The role of the middle class in promoting democracy is essential. In any country, the middle class is likely to be aware, cautious and concerned about citizens’ rights. Evidence shows that in countries where the middle class is strong, democracy is likely to succeed or flourish.

The 2007 Pew Global Attitudes Survey also found that democratic values ​​are particularly strong among the middle class. For example, one study found that the simultaneous decline in democracy and size of the middle class in Europe contribute to the rise of extremism around the financial crisis.

However, in many countries, including Eastern Europe, the middle class is now more profit-centered, less conscious, selfish and supportive of a neoliberal economy. In doing so, they are likely to support the regime that serves the community’s goals. As a result, autocratic regimes in European countries created a group of middle-class beneficiaries to support their plan.

These specific groups primarily exert control over the media, civil society, government institutions, law enforcement, and other government mechanisms, thus serving as a fundamental support system for autocracy. This particular group advocates oligarchy and has played a significant role in promoting kleptocracy in various countries.

The Awami League regime in Bangladesh and the autocratic middle class

The role of the middle class in Bangladesh was crucial during and after independence. Similarly, in the 1990 uprising in Bangladesh, the middle class came together and defeated the regime under the leadership of General Ershad. During both movements, civil servants, businessmen, members of civil society, NGOs and private sector teachers united and fought against an autocratic leader. Even though students were always in the lead, the middle class always supported these movements.

In 2009, the Awami League (AL) secured its third term in power. With an overwhelming majority of 230 seats out of 300, the Awami League forms the government. The main opposition only managed to obtain 30 seats. After the initial struggle, Sheikh Hasina’s regime began to assert its authority over the country.

With an overwhelming majority in Parliament, the regime began to demonstrate its autocratic nature through various means. According to Rosenfeld, the autocratic middle class begins to manifest itself in various ways under the regime. The repression of the main opposition by the police constitutes the first step in this process.

For example, in 2011, Deputy Commissioner of Dhaka Metropolitan Police (Lalbagh Zone) Harun-or-Rashid assaulted and harassed the leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in Parliament, in front of the Parliament building, during an opposition-sponsored general strike. Subsequently, Harun-or-Rashid received awards and promotions.

The regime also made several reforms, including abolishing the caretaker government system to guarantee the next elections. The government also began to assert control over the judiciary, the electoral commission, the anti-corruption commission, and several other public institutions. These institutions contributed to the incarceration of BNP leaders and supporters. This is why the main opposition, the BNP, boycotted the 2014 elections.

Political violence, bitter experiences of the BNP regime and neoliberal economics have led to a decline in interest in politics among the mass population, including the middle and lower middle class. As a result, the BNP’s electoral boycott had little impact and gave the Awami League the freedom to govern for the next five years.

During the period 2014-2018, AL massively expanded the autocratic middle class, both in the public and private sectors. In Bangladesh, the autocratic middle class has received many privileges from the government, including access to government contracts, rent-seeking, lobbying, etc.

Starting with government officials, especially those in the cadre, the regime has extended its benefits to NGOs, the media, economic sectors, university professors, civil society, and military officials. Moreover, they deliberately cultivated partisan support by supporting the regime. In particular, the government cadre service was well received by the AL regime and enjoyed many benefits.

For example, since August 2020, the government has allocated a interest-free car loan to joint secretaries and higher level civil servants, along with Tk 50,000 per month for car maintenance before the start of their Retirement Leave (PRL). In addition, the government has regularly supported civil servants through Prime Minister’s Fellowships, Bangabandhu Fellowships, government visits and overseas training.

The regime awarded government projects and recruited like-minded civil society consultants; media houses received government tenders for advertisements and supplies; they awarded government contracts to allied politicians like the Jubo League or the erstwhile Chhatra League (various wings of the AL), who were involved in business and they appointed like-minded university professors as vice -chancellors and other lucrative administrative positions.

They also rewarded journalists with privileges and perks. Furthermore, the government has created an environment conducive to corruption for public officials, politicians (even rank-and-file politicians), businessmen and certain groups of beneficiaries, as many of them have exposed. place. second homes in Canada, the United States, Dubai, Singapore and Australia, looting banks and public money.

The irony is that in the following two elections (2018 and 2024), this autocratic middle class remained silent in the face of unfair elections. Instead, bureaucrats and law enforcement rigged elections in favor of the AL to maintain control and establish a totalitarian state.

Moreover, these particular groups have become the saviors of the oligarchy. and helped it prosper kleptocracy in Bangladesh under the regime. Recent reports show that Salman F Rahman (an advisor to Hasina) stole $36,865 from seven banks. Janata Bankone of the state-owned banks of Bangladesh, continued to finance Beximco-owned companies even after exceeding the exposure limit per single borrower with special permission from the central bank.

According to interim head of government Muhammad Yunus, Sheikh Hasina destroyed all the institutions of Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina received strong support from the autocratic service class within these institutions.

Why did the regime fall?

Undoubtedly, students were at the forefront to oust Hasina from the regime. She finally fled to India on August 5, 2024. It started with the quota reform movement, which then turned into a violent one-point movement to “resign Hasina”. This is mainly due to the massive public support following the government’s strong action and the brutal killing of students.

But the issue is not limited to quota reform alone. The controversial digital security law, extrajudicial killings and harassment were used to repress and muzzle citizens throughout the regime. Human rights were frequently violated. Even young people were afraid to write on social media because they were monitored by government agencies.

Additionally, during this period, many young people voting for the first time were unable to vote. More importantly, rising prices of basic necessities have left the poor and lower middle classes in a state of destitution. As a result, a group of people becomes rich through corruption and cronyism; on the other hand, another group becomes impoverished and lives in miserable conditions.

Therefore, the corruption perpetrated by the autocratic upper class and middle class has angered the masses. When the public learned of the corruption of the former Inspector General of Police and employees of the National Board of Revenue, who had long been seen as the government’s saviors, became furious.

On the other hand, India blindly supported the rigged elections due to its geopolitical interests. Bangladesh showed its favor towards India during this period in many ways. After Modi’s re-election in India, Sheikh Hasina signed a number of important treaties. These factors also angered the masses and contributed to the growth Anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh.

All these factors converged as she arrogantly attempted to muzzle student protests against the quota verdict. Although the autocratic middle class supported it to the end, it lost its grip due to the army’s lack of cooperation.

Dr. Nurul Huda Sakib is a professor at the Department of Government and Politics, Jahangirnagar University. He received his doctorate from the University of Sydney, Australia. He can be reached at (email protected)

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of The Business Standard.