A critical ACC matchup finds two undefeated conference teams on the same field as No. 18 Pittsburgh hits the road against No. 20 SMU in Week 10 of college football. Here’s what you need to pay attention to, along with our updated predictions for the match.

Pittsburgh steamrolled Syracuse a week ago behind a gritty defense that resulted in returning 3 of the team’s 5 interceptions for touchdowns, improving to 7-0 on the year as one of the eight remaining undefeated teams in the college football.

SMU pulled out a one-point win at Duke last time out despite 6 turnovers and needing a missed 2-point try to escape with the win, improving to 7-1 overall with a 4-point score -0 in ACC play.

What can we expect as the Panthers and Mustangs face off in this ACC matchup?

Here’s what you need to watch out for as Pittsburgh and SMU meet in this Week 10 college football matchup, with our updated prediction.

1. Pressure. Pitt recorded 12 sacks in its first 5 games, but added 10 more sacks to that total in its last 2 outings behind an increasingly confident group of linebackers, ranking 20th nationally and averaging 3, 14 sacks per game.

SMU is solid in protection and doesn’t pass up a ton of negative plays, allowing just 1.13 sacks per game and only 9 total all year, combined with 4.25 tackles for loss allowed per game.

2. On the line. SMU’s blockers have led the way for a productive rushing attack, which ranks 23rd nationally with 201 yards per game, averaging 4.73 yards per carry and totaling 19 touchdowns.

But the Panthers are up to the task, ranking 9th in the FBS in rushing defense, allowing 94 yards on average, just 2.52 yards per carry, and just 6 total rushing TDs, 6th nationally.

3. Injury monitoring. For two quarters too. SMU’s Kevin Jennings has been cleared to play after suffering an undisclosed issue last week. Good thing for the Mustangs: He’s 5-0 as a starter with 10 touchdowns and 5 picks, and is a capable runner, with 321 yards and 3 more touchdowns leading the ACC’s third-ranked scoring offense .

Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein has also been cleared to play, head coach Pat Narduzzi confirmed, after the player was injured while running last week. He has 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions and plays his best football in the fourth quarter, completing 75% of his throws with 4 scores and no turnovers.

So far this year, Pittsburgh has averaged 12.7 points better than its opponents on the same field, while SMU comes out 12.9 points better than the competition in 2024.

In the last three matches, both teams have played similarly against their respective opponents.

Pittsburgh was 13.3 points better on average than its opponents in that time, while SMU has been 12.7 points better than the competition over this period.

When playing on the road, Pitt has seen its margin of victory dwindle, winning games by 5.5 points on average against away opponents.

SMU was 15.7 points better than their opponents on average when playing at home this season.

Pittsburgh ranks 19th nationally with 35.5 points per game on average, opposing an SMU defense that is 51st in FBS by allowing 23.4 points per game.

In total production, the Panthers’ offense is average 408 yards per game this season, ranking 44th in the nation, while the Mustangs’ defense is 45th in turnovers 351.3 yards per game.

Pittsburgh ranks 15th among 134 FBS teams on average 0.534 points per game this season, compared to SMU, which is 38th in defense allowing 0.325 points per game on average.

On third down, Pitt ranks just 94th nationally in moving the chains 36.11 percent of conversion opportunities, while SMU is 38th in FBS in allowing opponents to move the chains on 34.31 percent third chance attempts.

Pitt is 33rd in red zone scoring nationally. 90.48 percent chances in the opposing 20, while SMU allows points on 82.61 percent of opportunities.

SMU ranks 17th nationally on average 36.3 points per game this season, facing a Pittsburgh defense that is 44th in surrenders 22.8 points per game on average.

When evaluating the total offense, SMU displays 421.9 yards per game this season, ranked 37th in the country, against a Pitt defense allowing 356.2 yards per gameranked #50 in FBS.

SMU is on average 0.522 points per game on average offensively, ranking 19th nationally in that category, compared to a Pitt defense that is 16th in defense allowing 0.281 points per game this season.

EMS Stations 6.1 yards per play in total offensive production, ranking No. 35 in FBS, but the Panthers are 9th nationally 4.4 yards per play.

On third down, the Mustangs move the chains 43.33 percent at the time, ranking No. 36 on FBS, while the Panthers allowed conversions on 30.93 percent chances.

SMU converted 26 of its 32 red zone opportunities into points, for a 81.25 percent success rate, and 21 of those 26 scores (65.53%) were touchdowns.

Most other analytical models side with the Mustangs over the undefeated Panthers.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select winners.

SMU should win the game by majority 70.2 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Pittsburgh as the presumptive winner in the finale. 29.8 percent sims.

EMS should be 7.7 points better than Pittsburgh on the same field in the latest simulations of the two teams head to head, according to the model’s latest predictions.

SMU is a 7.5 point favorites against Pittsburgh, according to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And that set the money odds for SMU at -275 and for Pittsburgh at +220 to win outright.

Pittsburgh has the defensive personnel to contain the Mustangs’ threats, but they’ve played some close games and haven’t really faced such a talented team yet this season.

SMU can pack a punch running the ball, and the added bonus of Jennings’ mobility could be just the combination to finally thwart Pitt’s seven aggressive pursuers.

Holstein’s passing production has been intermittent this season and if he doesn’t play his best game, that could allow the Mustangs to pull away, but SMU’s turnover issues in recent outings could make this closer than the public local wouldn’t do it. prefer.

College football HQ chooses…

More… Pittsburgh vs SMU score prediction by expert model

When: Saturday November 2
Time: 8 p.m. ET | 7:00 p.m. CT
Television: ACC network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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