TAMPA, Fla. — Potential Topical Cyclone Eighteen has formed in the Caribbean and is moving northeast at nearly 7 mph. It is expected to turn north then northwest over the next few days.

But what does this mean for the Tampa Bay area?

ABC Action News Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips said, “The trajectory of the NHC is good news for the Peninsula. A trajectory this far west does not mean that we will not see some impacts, but these impacts would be weaker the further west we move. The chances of rain increasing are a given. There could be some coastal push, but the further west you go, the lower this risk will be.

Here are Denis Phillips’ thoughts from Sunday evening:

1. PTC #18 will become Rafael. It will likely become a hurricane in the northern Caribbean.
2. Once it crosses Cuba it will weaken.
3. The trail is WAY west of Florida. If this is true, very little impact to our region other than rain and perhaps some minor coastal flooding. It goes without saying (but I’ll say it anyway), if the track moves further east, the impacts would be greater. However, this is NOT currently the forecast.
4. I avoid the “what if” game. There are ALWAYS other possibilities. Why add to the confusion?! I’ll tell you what I think will happen, and if it changes, I’ll adapt. It served me well for 30 years. I’m not changing now.
5. At this point, the NHC track won’t have much impact on the beggar. However, the Keys could see some pretty turbulent weather midweek as Rafael barrels through Cuba like a hurricane.

6. Rule #7. Our team will keep you informed 24/7, as always.

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