Follow up Hurricane Rafael was difficult last week, especially after yesterday’s models which cause the storm to follow an unpredictable path in the Gulf of Mexico. But various trackers of the Thursday, Nov. 7, hurricane have narrowed the field as it moves toward the central Gulf after passing through Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane. Here’s the latest update on where it’s expected to go of Hurricane Rafael as the weekend approaches.

Where is Hurricane Rafael heading in the Gulf?

The most likely track for Hurricane Rafael is that it will move westward across the Gulf, completely missing the United States, and turning south toward the Bay of Campeche over the next five days .

THE National Hurricane Center (NHC) updated its projections in a report Thursday at 9 a.m. CST. It forecasts that Hurricane Rafael will move relatively slowly westward, reducing its strength to a tropical storm by 6 p.m. Saturday. It will then likely head south and dissipate heading towards Mexico by Tuesday next week.

Accuweather also changed the gaze path of the hurricane, which he said yesterday was poised to move through Louisiana. Now, the weather service largely agrees with the NHC’s projections, adding that the storm will likely move into a wall of drier air along the Mexican coast and “increasing wind shear” that will significantly weaken its strength . However, on Thursday, the Florida Keys could experience a slight storm surge of 1 to 3 feet as the storm passes.

As for the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), spaghetti models from November 7 at 4:00 a.m. (Pacific Time) still present a wide range of possible trajectories for Hurricane Rafael which extends from Mexico to the region of Florida panhandle. But the vast majority of models presented in its guidance still agree with Thursday’s projections from the NHC and Accuweather.

Meteorologist Brian Shields, known on YouTube as Mr. Weathermanalso estimates that the most likely path of the hurricane will curve southward. While the American model (GFS) predicts that the storm will move north towards Louisiana, it has instead looked at the European model, as this has so far been a better tool for tracking the hurricane.

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