As a candidate, Donald Trump promised relief for consumers from high interest rates. As president, this will likely be a slow process largely out of his control.

Trump repeatedly said during the campaign that he would lower interest rates, without specifying how. He suggested that the president should have a say in determining the rates set by the Federal Reserve and publicly chastised the central bank and its chairman, Jerome Powell, for not lowering rates sooner.

But while Trump has placed much emphasis on the Federal Reserve as a way to reduce interest paid by consumers or businesses, rates on mortgages and other long-term loans are beyond the control of any person or institution. Instead, these rates are largely determined by the bond market, where investors examine a range of long-term risks, such as the likelihood of a return of high inflation, the prospects for economic growth and the capacity of governments -United to repay their debts in the future. decades to come.

“I think macroeconomic trends are much more important,” said Kent Smetters, professor of business economics and public policy at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. “I just don’t think the Federal Reserve has as much control as it used to.”

The Federal Reserve plays a role in influencing interest rates by setting the amount that banks must pay in the short term to borrow money from each other to carry out their daily operations. This amount may be reflected in the amount lenders then charge consumers for a loan, but this is not always the case.

Mortgage Rates pink after Federal Reserve cuts prices in September for the first time since the pandemic, and despite the Fed’s further rate cut on Nov. 7, mortgage rates are expected to continue to rise in the coming days based on bond market trends, said Ralph McLaughlin, economist main page for Realtor.com.

“The idea that the president can directly influence the Fed rate is a little unrealistic, but broader policies, or political expectations, have a much more direct effect,” McLaughlin said.

Trump has no direct control over the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, which are determined by a committee which includes seven members appointed for a 14-year term as well as five regional reserve bank presidents. Under current law, the president I can’t shoot Powell or any member of the Fed Board of Governors without “cause,” so the removal of any of those members over a disagreement over interest rates would be challenged in court.

Trump has previously tried to influence the Fed with his rhetoric. During his first term, Trump said Powell, whom he nominated in 2018, was a greater enemy of America than Chinese President Xi Jinping and posted on Twitter that Powell had a “horrible lack of vision ” and “no “guts”, no sense. no vision!

Powell said during his November 7 speech that if Trump asked him to resign, he would not do so and that the law did not allow Trump to fire him or any other member of the Federal Reserve board .

Although Trump acknowledged he probably doesn’t have the power to set rates or fire Powell, he indicated he wouldn’t stop expressing his views on what the Fed should do.

“I think I have the right to say, ‘I think you should increase or decrease a little bit,'” Trump told the Chicago Economic Club last month. “I don’t think I should be allowed to order it, but I think I have the right to comment on whether interest rates are going up or down.”

Trump will finally have the opportunity to begin reshuffling the board in May 2026, when Powell’s term expires. Trump said in February that he would not reappoint Powell for another term. Whoever he appoints to replace Powell will have to be confirmed by the Senate, which Republicans are expected to control.

To try to push for change at the Fed before 2026, Trump economic adviser Scott Bessent floated the idea of ​​creating a “shadow” Fed chairman by appointing Powell’s replacement well before the end of his term, according to a report. interview with Barron’s last month. Although that person would not have decision-making authority, his or her comments could signal to financial markets where the agency is headed, said Bessent, chief executive of hedge fund Key Square, whom Trump called “one of the most brilliant men. on Wall Street.

Aside from any actions Trump might take with the Federal Reserve, interest rates are likely to begin falling later this year if inflation remains under control, economists predict.

Trump’s own policies, however, could push rates higher if they signal a return to higher-than-normal inflation. Trump has proposed imposing drastic tariffs on all goods imported into the United States, including a 60% duty on imports from China. If previous rates All indications are that this would raise the prices consumers pay for goods and could trigger another round of inflation that would push rates higher. Significant tax cuts that would put more money in people’s pockets could also contribute to higher inflation.

“Anything that is going to put money in consumers’ pockets, whether it’s tax breaks, tax credits or other types of stimulus, has the potential to drive up prices , which would result in higher mortgage rates,” McLaughlin said.

One of the most effective ways to lower long-term rates will likely be to keep inflation around its current level of 2 to 3 percent and for the United States to take steps to reduce its deficit and control their expenses, which would make the obligation stronger. market more favorable to lenders, Smetters said.

“Right now, financial markets are betting that Congress and the president will eventually come to an agreement to ultimately stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio,” Smetters said. “As soon as they stop believing that that’s true, then you’ll really see the 30-year mortgage come into play.”

But a drop in short-term rates to levels seen during the pandemic is unlikely, barring a major economic downturn.

“The president doesn’t have a lot of policies that would actually lower rates,” McLaughlin said. “Beyond policies that could harm the economy itself.”

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