WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE:

Patience is required as we watch Potential Tropical Cyclone #19 meander through the Caribbean throughout the weekend. It is not yet clear whether or where this will impact the Gulf, as many factors come into play in forecasting beyond a week.

Potential Tropical Cyclone No. 19 Develops

HERE’S WHAT WE KNOW:

Potential Tropical Cyclone No. 19 is expected to strengthen into Depression or Tropical Storm Sara by Thursday afternoon, causing dangerous flooding in parts of Central America, where the system is expected to remain nearly stationary through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next few days, and the system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm on Thursday and continue to strengthen as it approaches the coast of Central America.

COULD HE ATTACK SWFL?

It is too early to tell if, when and where the system might emerge in the Gulf of Mexico. How it interacts with an approaching low pressure front and trough early to mid next week will dictate its trajectory. For now, it’s something to keep an eye on but not to worry about just yet.

THREATS TO CENTRAL AMERICA:

PRECIPITATION: Through early next week, precipitation of 10 to 20 inches with an isolated storm totaling about 30 inches is expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will result in large areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, particularly along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere in the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches until early next week. This will result in areas of possibly significant flash flooding, as well as potential landslides.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Thursday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday evening.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could cause water levels to rise as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast, near areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

The government of Honduras has issued a hurricane watch from Punta Castilla eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

The government of Nicaragua has issued a tropical storm watch from the Honduras-Nicaragua border south to Puerto Cabezas.