Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Alex Bregman are the biggest names of the MLB offseasonbut perhaps most interesting is Roki Sasaki, the 23-year-old Japanese flamethrower who may or may not become available for American teams this winter.

For years, Chiba star Lotte Marines has established himself as Nippon Professional Baseball’s next big import, following in the footsteps of Shohei Ohtani, Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Ichiro Suzuki. The date of his arrival, however, is unknown.

For what? Let’s go.

Who is Roki Sasaki?

Sasaki may be the most promising pitcher to ever come out of Japan. A native of Rikuzentakata, Iwate Prefecture, he was on the radars of MLB teams when he was in high school before choosing to enter the NPB draft, in which the Marines won his draft rights in 2019.

Sasaki has since dominated the league, posting a career 2.02 ERA with 524 strikeouts in 414 2/3 innings over four seasons. He doesn’t have the most numbers ever by an NPB pitcher (that title probably belongs to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, now of the Los Angeles Dodgers), but Sasaki could be even more intriguing because of an arsenal that hitters Japanese are surely tired of confronting.

When did people start knowing about Sasaki?

Sasaki was great for a while in Japan, but he started attracting international attention in April 2022, when he pitched a perfect game with 19 strikeouts. It’s not hyperbole to call this the most impressive pitching performance ever.

Sasaki followed by pitching eight perfect innings and 14 strikeouts in his next start before being removed due to workload issues. That’s when many MLB fans started trying to find out when he might move to the United States.

More attention was paid during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, in which Sasaki was a member of the vaunted pitching staff of the Japanese team that led the country to victory. Sasaki started the semifinal against Mexico, allowing five hits and three runs and recording three strikeouts against a lineup of mostly MLB hitters.

What can we expect from Sasaki in MLB?

Sasaki is an exciting prospect, but he’s not a perfect prospect.

We can compare Sasaki and Yamamoto. While Sasaki has a larger frame than Yamamoto, can throw harder than Yamamoto, and possesses a splitter that surpasses Yamamoto’s, Yamamoto has become the more complete thrower due to his mastery and more complete arsenal. Sasaki may have the highest ceiling of any potential pitcher, but he has yet to show he can put it all together against MLB hitters.

There’s a good chance he does, but it might take him a year or two in MLB before he really dominates. Any MLB team would happily give him that runway, but at the same time, it might be better for him to stay in Japan a little longer.

More concerning were Sasaki’s declining velocity and injury issues this year, as he saw his fastball lose a tick and missed a few starts due to arm discomfort. These are important red flags, given that starting pitchers who throw 100 rarely spend more than a few years in MLB before requiring major surgery.

What kind of things are we talking about?

Let’s start by noting that Sasaki tied Ohtani for the most powerful pitcher in Japanese history, with his fastest throw at 102.5 mph. Sasaki showed up at the WBC and threw 26 of 29 pitches at speeds greater than 100 mph. No starting pitcher in MLB throws that hard and consistently.

We can easily rate this fastball an 80 on the 20-80 recognition scale. The other 80 in Sasaki’s arsenal would be his splitter, which is usually his takedown throw and might be the best throw of its type in the world.

After that, Sasaki found most of his success as a two-pitch pitcher. That’s tough to do as a starter, but he repeatedly overwhelmed hitters with his fastball and splitter duo. That said, he has worked on his slider this season with encouraging results, and any MLB team will want him to continue that process.

So he’s going to get a huge amount of money?

No, a few million dollars at most. Think “26th overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft” money.

Wait, what?

The main thing with Sasaki is that he is 23 years old. When Yamamoto came to MLB and received $325 million from the Dodgers, he was 25 years old. These two years are very important.

Because Sasaki is under 25, he is subject to the same international free agent rules that govern young players from the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and anywhere other than the United States. If a team wants to sign him, they have to do so using money from their international bonus pools, which have reached just over $7 million for the most favored teams this season.

After signing, Sasaki’s status will basically be the same as any other prospect. He could go to the minors (but he almost certainly won’t), and his team will have six years of control, with arbitration after three years. If Sasaki joins MLB this offseason, he will be eligible for free agency after 2030, his age-28 season.

Why would he do that?

This is the $300 million question.

Sasaki would potentially forgo hundreds of millions of dollars by coming to the United States now, rather than in two years. The Marines would make tens of millions of dollars from his assignment in two years, compared to a pittance if he came now.

The reason why Sasaki came now is because Ohtani was in the same position before the 2018 season, and he later made $700 million. Maybe Sasaki thinks he can build his baseball career better if he faces the best hitters in the world as soon as possible.

Do we know if Sasaki is posted?

We don’t, for all the reasons above.

It seems pretty clear that the Marines don’t want to post him yet, and you’d think that would be the end of it, but NPB contracts aren’t like MLB contracts. Much is done in secret and on an annual basis, with the possibility that Sasaki has a clause in his contract that could force his assignment.

We probably won’t know for sure what’s next for Sasaki until he signs his next contract with the Marines or is assigned.

What happens if Roki Sasaki is released?

If Sasaki is officially named, that triggers a 45-day window during which he can negotiate with every MLB club, from the Dodgers to the White Sox. If he signs with a team, that’s it.

If he doesn’t, he returns to the Marines and can’t be assigned until next offseason.

How would teams woo Roki Sasaki?

We experienced this with Ohtani, in what was essentially the baseball version of “The Bachelor.” Every team showed interest, he handed out a rose to seven finalists, and then he ended up choosing the Los Angeles Angels, for some reason.

This is what would happen with Sasaki. Rather than a bidding war, the teams would present to him what they could do for him from a comfort and performance standpoint. Background, facilities, staff and personal comfort would become important parts of an equation usually dominated by money.

Who are Roki Sasaki’s favorites?

This is likely the team that just won the World Series, with two of Sasaki Samurai Japan’s teammates playing a central role, having made the playoffs every year for over a decade, with the biggest crowd in Japan, in the city with the largest Japanese population in the country. the continental United States.

We are of course talking about the LA Dodgers.

So the Dodgers want to redo the Samurai Japan rotation?

The Dodgers have been considered Sasaki’s favorites if he came for a while now, and winning a ring with Ohtani and Yamamoto, who are under contract for the next nine years, certainly hasn’t hurt their chances.

Additionally, the Dodgers, a very smart team, acted as if they knew Sasaki was coming all year by preserving $2.5 million in international bonuses, the most remaining of any MLB team. You don’t do this unless you think you have a real chance, although this advantage would disappear if Sasaki’s release goes beyond January 15, when the international bonus pools reset.

This seems outrageous – baseball’s current “haves” are attracting the player for whom money theoretically should not be a factor. Imagine a rotation of Ohtani, Yamamoto, Sasaki, Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw. Heck, sign Max Fried, who the Dodgers are also rumored to be involved in, and make it a six-man rotation.

The Dodgers are already Japan’s team due to Ohtani’s unfathomable popularity there, but adding Sasaki would give them a trip to the country three times per rotation. It’s a nightmare scenario for anyone invested in the Dodgers not reaching dynasty territory.

Which teams could challenge the Dodgers?

That would depend on Sasaki.

The San Diego Padres are intriguing, as they are also good and employ another Japanese great in Darvish, responsible for a photo showing Sasaki in Padres gear during a ping pong night with the boys. One would imagine that all the other suitors are interested as well, including the New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants and New York Mets, so a lot of it depends on what Sasaki is looking for.

The Dodgers are probably the favorites, but it’s not at a time when you’re clearly taking them in the field. As far as we know, Sasaki doesn’t want to spend the first six years of his MLB career in the shadow of Ohtani and Yamamoto.

Can we conclude?

Of course. Sasaki is a generational flamethrower who would likely make around $300 million if he were a current MLB free agent. Instead, if assigned by his NPB team, he would represent the biggest deal in baseball: six years of a potential ace for fifth starter money.

We don’t know when he’ll come and if it will be this winter, but it immediately becomes one of the biggest stories of the offseason when he does. And the Dodgers will probably be there, whether it’s 2024 or 2026.