A playoff game of sorts gets underway from Death Valley as No. 15 LSU hosts No. 11 Alabama in Week 11 college football Saturday night. Here’s what you need to pay attention to, along with our updated predictions for the match.

Just about everything is on the line, as these SEC rivals enter Week 11 in a precarious position after the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season were revealed.

Alabama is just inside, and LSU is just outside, that coveted top dozen and the loser would be all but eliminated from the playoffs with a crowded field of other teams looking to compete for one of these 12 places.

What can we expect as the Crimson Tide and Tigers meet in this SEC rivalry game?

Here’s what you should watch for as Alabama and LSU meet in this Week 11 college football matchup, with our updated prediction.

1. On the ground. LSU ranks last in the SEC in rushing offense with 115 yards per game, but could find some holes against a run-stopping Alabama that is allowing 151 rushing yards to opponents in SEC play this season.

The problem is LSU just lost left guard Garrett Dellinger to an ankle injury and won’t play in the game. The line has struggled to open running lanes with him out of the rotation and now the task becomes more difficult to establish the run and keep the Crimson Tide defense honest.

2. Contain the QB. LSU has proven vulnerable at times against mobile quarterbacks this season, especially after Marcel Reed entered the game two weeks ago for Texas A&M, throwing for three touchdowns, and was instrumental in that comeback effort in the second period.

Jalen Milroe presents the same threat, if not more so given his consistent production, but he’s also been susceptible to opposing passes, being sacked 11 times in the last 4 games, and LSU has markedly improved on their pressure this season, ranking 9th nationally with 28 sacks and an average of 6.13 stops behind the line per game.

3. Fight on the line. LSU features one of the premier offensive lines in the country, a unit that has allowed just 4 sacks in 8 games, just 24 tackles for loss all year, and is the only line in the SEC that averages fewer than ‘one bag allowed per match.

It all adds up to a perceived advantage against an Alabama front seven that has 18 sacks and 45 tackles for loss all season, but the unit has improved over time this season, especially when looking to generate pressure against the quarterbacks and will look to get out of it. Garrett Nussmeier before he could get the ball out of his hands.

Most analytical prediction models favor the Crimson Tide against the Tigers this weekend.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select winners.

Alabama is a solid road favorite, winning in 69.6 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the game.

This leaves LSU as the presumptive winner in the remaining games. 30.4 percent sims.

How does this translate to expected margin of victory in the game?

Alabama should be 7.6 points better than LSU on the same field in the current composition of both teams, according to the model’s latest predictions.

Alabama is a 2.5 point favorites against LSU, per FanDuel Sportsbook lines.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the game.

And that set the money odds for Alabama at -138 and for LSU at +115 to win outright.

Alabama: -2.5 (-120)
LSU: +2.5 (-102)

Beyond 58.5 points: -114
Under 58.5 points: -106

It’s basically a coin toss. Both teams are evenly matched, both are under tremendous pressure to keep their playoff hopes alive, and each has advantages over the other’s weaknesses.

Jalen Milroe is the key to Alabama’s offensive success. His combination of deep field accuracy and mobility in and out of the pocket is a dangerous mix that could expose an LSU defense that has played better near the line this season but remains a vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks.

LSU’s offense relies heavily on the passing game, ranking fifth nationally in throwing the ball on 61 percent of snaps, and its success depends on Nussmeier’s ability to avoid turnovers.

He has the weapons on the perimeter that can credibly test the Crimson Tide’s seven back tackles, but the quarterback could be vulnerable to pressure from Alabama’s top line, especially with a sudden hole at left. inside LSU’s line after Dellinger’s departure.

But LSU’s inability to consistently balance its offense, Milroe’s dynamic running and passing playmaking ability, and the Tide’s relative advantage in running the ball on the Tigers’ front, and it appears Bama’s hopes in the playoffs will get a reprieve this week.

College football HQ chooses…

More… Alabama vs LSU Score Prediction by Expert Model

When: Saturday November 9
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Television: ABC network

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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