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    • Who is currently winning the presidential election? What the polls predict
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    Who is currently winning the presidential election? What the polls predict

    Umito Posted on

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    Just five days before the elections, Donald Trump And Kamala Harris remain locked in a tight battle in Arizona, a swing state for presidential election where a narrow margin could determine the outcome.

    Both candidates and their vice presidential running mates campaigned combatively in Arizona in the weeks leading up to the election. They gathered, visited border towns and targeted various demographics.

    Trump and Harris both visited metro Phoenix on Thursdayindicating the importance of the Grand Canyon State in this election. The vice president’s visit was tied to an election event with the musical group Los Tigres del Norte, while the former president was in town to take part in a live show with Tucker Carlson.

    Polls and predictions have shown a shift in dynamics and how close the presidential race has become in recent months. But who is most likely to win the battle in Arizona and the country, and could the ground game help tip the scales?

    Here is what polls, odds And historians » say as we head towards Election Day, Tuesday, November 5.

    Who is leading in the polls in the United States?

    Polls and odds change constantly, but here is where each candidate stands as of 7:30 a.m. on November 1, 2024:

    • ABC News 538 Project shows Harris leading in national polls with 48% to Trump with 46.8%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by as much as 4 percentage points, although more recent polls show them much closer.
    • 270towin shows Harris leading national polls by 1.2% over Trump.
    • Real clear survey shows that the betting odds are in favor of Trump with a spread of +0.3.

    More: Is Arizona a swing state for the 2024 presidential election? Here’s what you need to know

    Who is leading in the polls in Arizona?

    Trump has had a growing lead over Harris in most polls in Arizona in recent weeks, but surveys show the race is still incredibly close in the battleground state.

    Here is where each candidate stood at 7:30 a.m. on November 1, 2024:

    • ABC News 538 Project shows Trump leading Harris in Arizona polls by 2.3% over Harris.
    • 270towin shows Trump leading Arizona polls by 1.8% over Harris.
    • Real clear survey shows that the betting odds to win Arizona are in favor of Trump with a spread of +2.3.

    Arizona is in the political spotlight: Don’t miss the action. Sign up for Azcentral’s Republic Recount newsletter

    The historian who predicted 9 out of 10 elections gives his opinion

    Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, DC. He earned a doctorate from Harvard, specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.

    He correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last ten presidential elections and stood by his prediction about which candidate would win back the White House.

    This year he predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris will win.

    How accurate have election ratings or polls been in past presidential elections?

    THE betting favorite only has lost twice since 1866according to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.

    THE polling history is more difficult because different pollsters surveying different varieties of the population can often derive higher margins of error.

    According to Pew Researchconfidence in public opinion polls has suffered, given mistakes made in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

    During these two legislative elections, many polls underestimated the strength of Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.

    Arizona Republic reporters Stephanie Murray and Zach Bradshaw and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this report.

    Umito
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