GREEN BAY, Wis. – With a 6-3 record and a one-game lead in the NFC playoff race, you would think the Green Bay Packers would have a strong chance of reaching the NFC playoffs. NFL.

You would be right.

According to NFL Next Gen Statsthe Packers have a 73 percent chance of reaching the playoffs heading into Week 11. If they can beat the Chicago Bears for an 11th consecutive time on Sunday, that figure would rise to 80 percent. If the Bears can snap their three-game losing streak, that percentage would drop to 57 percent.

The Packers lead the San Francisco 49ers by one game in the race for last place in the NFC.

San Francisco has a 55 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. If he wins at home against down-scoring Seattle, that percentage would rise to 64 percent. If he loses, it will drop to 35 percent.

The calculation is similar in the New York Times.

The Packers have a 77 percent chance of reaching the playoffs heading into Week 11. Running the simulation more than 242,000 times, a win over Chicago would improve Green Bay’s playoff chances to 83 percent . In the event of a loss, this figure would drop to 62 percent.

After losing their first “biggest game of the season” to the Detroit Lions before the bye, the Packers’ next “biggest game of the season” could be next week’s home game against the 49ers.

Based on 267,000 simulations, if the Packers were able to beat the Bears and 49ers over the next two weeks, their playoff probability would jump to 94 percent.

On the other hand, if the Packers beat the Bears and the 49ers beat the Seahawks, then the 49ers beat the Packers, Green Bay’s playoff probability would drop to 68 percent — a surprisingly solid number considering head-to-head tiebreaker.

At the Washington Postthe Packers have a 72 percent chance of making the playoffs.

On playoff statusThe Packers’ playoff chances are 76 percent.

At ESPNGreen Bay has an 80 percent chance of reaching the playoffs.

On sports betting such as FanDuelthe Packers are heavy favorites to reach the playoffs. Green Bay is -300, which means an implied probability of 75.0 percent.

Working in the Packers’ favor is their strong record and the an advantage on offense if it can eliminate some of their self-inflicted problems.

Against them is the strength of the division, their two home losses in those division games and their 2-3 record in conference play – a key tiebreaker.

“This division, this year, has been especially good,” running back Josh Jacobs said Monday. “I mean, you have four solid teams, teams that probably shouldn’t have even lost some of the games that they lost, but you have guys that can play offensively and defensively and special teams – really all of them. phases.

“What we try to do to stand out is be who we are, play a little longer than the next person and, like I said, be on every detail.”

Latest NFC Playoff Standings

Here are the latest NFC playoff rankings with their playoff probability via the NFL:

1. Detroit Lions: 8-1 (99%)

2. Philadelphia Eagles: 7-2 (93%)

3. Atlanta Falcons: 6-4 (80%)

4. Arizona Cardinals: 6-4 (58%)

5. Minnesota Vikings: 7-2 (92%)

6. Washington Commanders: 7-3 (85%)

7. Green Bay Packers: 6-3 (73%)

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8. San Francisco 49ers: 5-4 (55%)

9. Chicago Bears: 4-5 (2%)

10. Los Angeles Rams: 4-5 (11%)

11. Seattle Seahawks: 4-5 (11%)

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-6 (36%)

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